Abstract:Abstract: Accurate forecasts of tea harvest production are important for workforce planning, factory operations, and marketing decisions, yet conventional estimation in plantations often relies on field experience and can…
n be biased and less adaptive to changing conditions. This study aims to develop a Random Forest Regression model to predict tea harvest production at the Bah Butong tea plantation using historical operational and climate-related data. The dataset consists of 60 monthly records (2020–2024) with six predictor variables: rainfall (mm), number of rainy days, pest level, weed level, number of harvested trees and land area. Data were split into 80% training (48 samples) and 20% testing (12 samples). Model hyperparameters were optimized using RandomizedSearchCV with RepeatedKFold cross-validation (5 folds, 3 repeats). The tuned model achieved MSE of 668,980,524.45, RMSE of 25,864.66 kg, MAE of 19,838.69 kg, and MAPE of 7.59% on the test set. The results indicate that the model can provide practical production estimates, with errors averaging about 7–8% of the actual production. Feature importance analysis shows that the number of harvested tea bushes and cultivated area contribute most to predictions. Future work should extend the historical period and incorporate time-based features (seasonality/lag) for improved forecasting.
Keywords: hyperparameter tuning; production prediction; random forest; regression; tea harvest
Abstrak: Perkiraan akurat produksi panen teh sangat penting untuk perencanaan tenaga kerja, operasional pabrik, dan keputusan pemasaran, namun estimasi konvensional di perkebunan seringkali bergantung pada pengalaman lapangan dan dapat bias serta kurang adaptif terhadap perubahan kondisi. Studi ini bertujuan untuk mengembangkan model Regresi Random Forest untuk memprediksi produksi panen teh di perkebunan teh Bah Butong menggunakan data operasional dan data terkait iklim historis. Dataset terdiri dari 60 catatan bulanan (2020–2024) dengan enam variabel prediktor: curah hujan (mm), jumlah hari hujan, tingkat hama, tingkat gulma, jumlah pokok panen, dan luas lahan. Data dibagi menjadi 80% data pelatihan (48 sampel) dan 20% data pengujian (12 sampel). Parameter model dioptimalkan menggunakan RandomizedSearchCV dengan validasi silang RepeatedKFold (5 lipatan, 3 pengulangan). Model yang telah disempurnakan mencapai MSE sebesar 668.980.524,45, RMSE sebesar 25.864,66 kg, MAE sebesar 19.838,69 kg, dan MAPE sebesar 7,59% pada set data uji. Hasil tersebut menunjukkan bahwa model dapat memberikan estimasi produksi yang praktis, dengan kesalahan rata-rata sekitar 7–8% dari produksi aktual. Analisis kepentingan fitur menunjukkan bahwa jumlah semak teh yang dipanen dan luas lahan budidaya paling berkontribusi pada prediksi. Pekerjaan selanjutnya harus memperpanjang periode historis dan menggabungkan fitur berbasis waktu (musiman/lag) untuk peramalan yang lebih baik.
Kata kunci: panen teh; prediksi produksi; random forest; regresi; tuning parameter
Abstract:Abstract: Academic achievement mapping is an important process in higher education to support effective academic monitoring and guidance. In practice, student grouping is often conducted manually by academic staff using…
simple criteria such as Grade Point Average (GPA) thresholds and subjective judgment, without systematic data analysis. This study aims to apply the Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) clustering algorithm to objectively group students based on their academic achievement levels. The dataset consists of academic records from 179 sixth-semester students of the Computer Science Study Program at Universitas Islam Negeri Sumatera Utara, where 160 eligible students are processed in the FCM calculation. Three variables are used: cumulative GPA, total completed credits, and the total number of low grades (D/E). The FCM algorithm automatically performs the mapping and groups students into three categories, namely excellent, stable, and at-risk students. Cluster quality is evaluated using the Silhouette Score and Davies–Bouldin Index, showing satisfactory clustering performance. The results indicate that the proposed approach provides a data-driven and objective basis for academic decision support.
Keywords: academic achievement; clustering; fuzzy c-means; student
Abstrak: Pemetaan pencapaian akademik mahasiswa merupakan proses penting dalam pendidikan tinggi untuk mendukung pemantauan dan pembinaan akademik yang tepat sasaran. Dalam praktiknya, pengelompokan mahasiswa masih sering dilakukan secara manual oleh pihak akademik berdasarkan kriteria sederhana, seperti batasan Indeks Prestasi Kumulatif (IPK) dan penilaian subjektif, tanpa analisis data yang sistematis. Penelitian ini bertujuan menerapkan algoritma Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) untuk mengelompokkan mahasiswa secara objektif berdasarkan tingkat pencapaian akademik. Data penelitian berasal dari 179 mahasiswa semester enam Program Studi Ilmu Komputer Universitas Islam Negeri Sumatera Utara, dengan 160 mahasiswa memenuhi kriteria dan diproses menggunakan algoritma FCM. Variabel yang digunakan meliputi IPK kumulatif, jumlah SKS yang telah ditempuh, dan total nilai rendah (D/E). Proses pemetaan sepenuhnya dilakukan oleh algoritma FCM dan menghasilkan tiga kategori mahasiswa, yaitu unggul, stabil, dan berisiko. Evaluasi menggunakan Silhouette Score dan Davies–Bouldin Index menunjukkan kualitas pengelompokan yang cukup baik.
Kata kunci: fuzzy c-means; clustering; mahasiswa; pencapaian akademik
Abstract:Abstract: This research is motivated by the problem of building material inventory management at Jaqfar Building Store, which is still done manually and based on subjective estimates. This often results in inaccuracies in…
n determining stock levels, either in the form of overstock or understock, which hinders operational effectiveness. The purpose of this study is to apply the Multiple Linear Regression method to analyze the relationship between incoming stock (X1) and outgoing stock (X2) variables with the ending stock variable (Y) to produce an optimal inventory prediction model. The research methodology used includes collecting historical transaction data for building materials such as cement, ceramics, zinc, plywood, and iron. This web-based prediction system was developed using the PHP programming language and a MySQL database. The analysis results show that the resulting regression model can provide a mathematical picture of future inventory patterns based on historical data. Implementation of this system is expected to assist the management of Jaqfar Building Materials Store in making strategic decisions regarding purchasing and sales in a more measured and efficient manner.
Keyword: building materials; data mining; inventory; multiple linear regression
Abstrak: Penelitian ini dilatarbelakangi oleh permasalahan pengelolaan persediaan bahan bangunan di Toko Bangunan Jaqfar yang masih dilakukan secara manual dan berdasarkan perkiraan subjektif. Hal ini menyebabkan sering terjadinya ketidaktepatan dalam menentukan jumlah stok, baik berupa kelebihan barang (overstock) maupun kekurangan barang (understock) yang menghambat efektivitas operasional. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah menerapkan metode Multiple Linear Regression (Regresi Linear Berganda) untuk menganalisis hubungan antara variabel stok masuk (X1) dan stok keluar (X2) terhadap variabel stok akhir (Y) guna menghasilkan model prediksi persediaan yang optimal. Metodologi penelitian yang digunakan mencakup pengumpulan data historis transaksi bahan bangunan seperti semen, keramik, seng, triplek, dan besi. Sistem prediksi ini dikembangkan berbasis web menggunakan bahasa pemrograman PHP dan basis data MySQL. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa model regresi yang dihasilkan mampu memberikan gambaran matematis mengenai pola persediaan di masa mendatang berdasarkan data historis. Implementasi sistem ini diharapkan dapat membantu manajemen Toko Bangunan Jaqfar dalam mengambil keputusan strategis terkait pembelian dan penjualan secara lebih terukur serta efisien.
Kata kunci: bahan bangunan; data mining; persediaan; regresi linear berganda
Abstract:Abstract: Obesity is an escalating global health concern, with unhealthy lifestyle patterns contributing significantly to its development. This study aims to evaluate and compare three clustering techniques for categorizing…
ing lifestyle patterns and obesity-related factors: K-Means, Agglomerative Clustering, and Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM). The data used in this study is sourced from the Food Nutrition dataset, which includes variables such as dietary habits, physical activity, and socio-economic status. The three clustering methods were assessed using evaluation metrics such as Silhouette Score, Davies-Bouldin Index (DBI), and Calinski-Harabasz Index (CHI). The findings revealed that K-Means exhibited the best performance in terms of cluster separation with a Silhouette Score of 0.5559, while GMM showed better flexibility in handling more complex data. Although Agglomerative Clustering produced acceptable results, it had a higher overlap between clusters compared to the other methods. This study offers valuable insights into selecting the most appropriate clustering technique based on the data characteristics.
Keywords: agglomerative; clustering; GMM; k-means; lifestyle patterns; obesity
Abstrak: Obesitas menjadi masalah kesehatan yang semakin meningkat di seluruh dunia, dengan pola hidup yang tidak sehat berperan besar dalam perkembangannya. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membandingkan tiga metode clustering dalam mengelompokkan pola gaya hidup dan faktor yang memengaruhi obesitas, yaitu K-Means, Agglomerative Clustering, dan Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM). Data yang digunakan diperoleh dari dataset Food Nutrition yang mencakup informasi terkait pola makan, aktivitas fisik, serta faktor sosial-ekonomi. Ketiga metode tersebut diuji dengan menggunakan beberapa metrik evaluasi, seperti Silhouette Score, Davies-Bouldin Index (DBI), dan Calinski-Harabasz Index (CHI). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa K-Means memiliki kinerja terbaik dalam hal pemisahan klaster, dengan nilai Silhouette Score sebesar 0.5559, sementara GMM lebih fleksibel dalam menangani data yang lebih kompleks. Meskipun Agglomerative Clustering memberikan hasil yang dapat diterima, tumpang tindih antar klaster lebih besar dibandingkan dengan kedua metode lainnya. Penelitian ini memberikan pemahaman yang lebih baik mengenai pemilihan metode clustering yang tepat berdasarkan karakteristik data yang digunakan.
Kata kunci: agglomerative; clustering; GMM; k-means; obesitas; pola gaya hidup
Abstract:Abstract: SMP Muhammadiyah 5 Samarinda still relies on manual evaluation with limited data analysis tools in predicting student academic achievement. This study aims develop a system for predicting the learning achievement…
nt of students at SMP Muhammadiyah 5 Samarinda using the Naive Bayes classification method. The dataset used consists of 192 student exam scores covering academic scores, attendance, parents’ education and income, and living conditions as independent variables, while the dependent variable is the achievement label (achieved or not achieved). The preprocessing stage includes label normalization, feature selection, and median imputation to handle missing data. The dataset was divided into 75% training data and 25%. The model was implemented as a pipeline consisting of a median imputer and a Gaussian Naive Bayes classifier. The evaluation results showed that the model achieved an accuracy of 79.2%, with a perfect recall value (1.00) in the high-achieving class and (0.64) in the low-achieving class. This shows that the model is quite effective in identifying high-achieving students. The trained model was then integrated into a Flask-based web application, which enables online predictions through a simple form interface, facilitating contextual interpretation. This system is expected to assist in educational decision-making by helping teachers identify students’ achievement levels early on and design more targeted learning interventions.
Keywords: academic performance; educational data mining; naive bayes; prediction system; student achievement
Abstrak: SMP Muhammadiyah 5 Samarinda masih bergantung pada evaluasi manual dengan alat analisis data terbatas dalam melakukan prediksi prestasi akademik siswa. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengembangkan sistem prediksi prestasi belajar siswa SMP Muhammadiyah 5 Samarinda menggunakan metode klasifikasi Naive Bayes. Dataset yang digunakan terdiri atas 192 data nilai ujian siswa yang mencakup skor akademik, kehadiran, pendidikan dan pendapatan orang tua, serta kondisi tempat tinggal sebagai variabel independen, sedangkan variabel dependen berupa label prestasi (berprestasi atau tidak berprestasi). Tahap preprocessing meliputi normalisasi label, seleksi fitur, serta imputasi median untuk menangani data yang hilang. Dataset dibagi menjadi 75% data latih dan 25%. Model diimplementasikan dalam bentuk pipeline yang terdiri atas median imputer dan Gaussian Naive Bayes classifier. Hasil evaluasi menunjukkan bahwa model mencapai akurasi sebesar 79,2%, dengan nilai recall sempurna (1,00) pada kelas berprestasi dan lebih rendah (0,64) pada kelas tidak berprestasi. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa model cukup efektif dalam mengidentifikasi siswa berprestasi. Model yang telah dilatih kemudian diintegrasikan ke dalam aplikasi web berbasis Flask, yang memungkinkan prediksi secara daring melalui antarmuka formulir sederhana untuk mendukung interpretasi kontekstual. Sistem ini diharapkan dapat membantu untuk pengambilan keputusan dalam pendidikan dengan membantu guru mengidentifikasi tingkat prestasi siswa sejak dini dan merancang intervensi pembelajaran yang lebih terarah.
Kata kunci: prestasi akademik; penambangan data Pendidikan; naive bayes; sistem prediksi; prestasi siswa
Abstract:This study analyzes the acceptance of teachers and ASN employees of the SINAGA (Sistem Informasi Layanan Kepegawaian) attendance application at SMA Negeri 1 Jatilawang using a modified Technology Acceptance Model (TAM).…
The model was extended by incorporating two external variables: Information Quality and Complexity. This explanatory quantitative research employed the Structural Equation Modeling–Partial Least Square (SEM-PLS) method involving 60 respondents who are civil servants, consisting of teachers and administrative staff. The results reveal that Information Quality has a positive and significant influence on both Perceived Usefulness (PU) and Perceived Ease of Use (PEOU), while Complexity does not show a significant effect on either variable. Furthermore, PEOU and PU have a positive impact on Attitude Toward Use (ATU), which subsequently affects Behavioral Intention to Use (BIU). Behavioral intention, in turn, strongly influences Actual Use (AU). These findings indicate that teachers’ acceptance of the SINAGA digital attendance system in educational settings is primarily driven by information quality and users’ positive attitudes rather than by system complexity. Theoretically, this study contributes to the expansion of TAM application in the educational context. Practically, it provides valuable insights for improving the effectiveness of SINAGA implementation through better information quality and enhanced user experience.
Abstract:Abstract: The management of veterinary drug stocks at the Veterinary Clinic Technical Implementation Unit (UPTD) of the North Sumatra Province Plantation and Livestock Service faces obstacles in the form of discrepancies…
between supply and demand, resulting in excess stock and budget waste. Uncertain demand for drugs is a factor that complicates decision-making in stock provision. This study aims to optimize drug stock management using the Mamdani fuzzy logic method, which is capable of handling data uncertainty and modeling information linguistically. Three input variables are used, namely initial stock, demand, and number of visits, with the output being the final stock. The process involves fuzzification, inference based on IF–THEN rules, and defuzzification using the centroid method. The results show that the developed system has a good accuracy level with a MAPE value of 17.52%, which means that this model is effective in providing optimal and efficient drug stock recommendations in a veterinary clinic environment.
Keywords: fuzzy mamdani; optimization; animal drug stock.
Abstract:Abstract: On-time graduation is an important indicator in measuring the success of higher education and reflects the effectiveness of the academic process in higher education. Royal University, especially the Information…
Systems Study Program, still faces challenges in increasing the percentage of students who graduate on time. This study aims to identify factors that influence students' on-time graduation and build a prediction model using the multiple linear regression method. This method was chosen because it is able to analyze the simultaneous influence of several independent numeric variables on one dependent variable, making it suitable for studying the complex relationship between factors that influence student graduation. The independent variables analyzed in this study include GPA, parental income, and student part-time jobs with student graduation as the dependent variable. The results showed that parental income and part-time jobs had a significant positive effect on on-time graduation, while GPA had a negative effect. The model built had an R² value of 0.6153 and a standard error of 4.0653, indicating that the model was quite strong and accurate. These findings recommend Universitas Royal to strengthen the academic monitoring system and support working students, as well as design policies based on students' socio-economic conditions to increase the on-time graduation rate.
Keywords: multiple linear regression; on-time graduation; students.
Abstrak: Kelulusan tepat waktu merupakan indikator penting dalam mengukur keberhasilan pendidikan tinggi serta mencerminkan efektivitas proses akademik di perguruan tinggi. Universitas Royal, khususnya Program Studi Sistem Informasi, masih menghadapi tantangan dalam meningkatkan persentase mahasiswa yang lulus tepat waktu. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi kelulusan tepat waktu mahasiswa serta membangun model prediksi menggunakan metode regresi linear berganda. Metode ini dipilih karena mampu menganalisis pengaruh simultan beberapa variabel independen numerik terhadap satu variabel dependen, sehingga sesuai untuk mengkaji hubungan kompleks antar faktor yang memengaruhi kelulusan mahasiswa. Variabel independen yang dianalisis dalam penelitian ini meliputi IPK, penghasilan orangtua, dan pekerjaan sambilan mahasiswa dengan kelulusan mahasiswa sebagai variabel dependen. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa penghasilan orangtua dan pekerjaan sambilan berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap kelulusan tepat waktu, sedangkan IPK justru memiliki pengaruh negatif. Model yang dibangun memiliki nilai R² sebesar 0,6153 dan standar error 4,0653, menandakan model cukup kuat dan akurat. Temuan ini merekomendasikan Universitas Royal untuk memperkuat sistem monitoring akademik dan mendukung mahasiswa yang bekerja, serta merancang kebijakan berbasis kondisi sosial-ekonomi mahasiswa guna meningkatkan angka kelulusan tepat waktu.
Kata kunci: kelulusan tepat waktu; mahasiswa; regresi linear berganda.
Abstract:Abstract: Non-performing loans remain one of the main challenges faced by cooperatives, particularly when the loan eligibility assessment process is still conducted manually. This traditional approach tends to be time consuming,…
nsuming, subjective, and prone to inaccurate decisions. This study aims to develop a predictive model for borrower eligibility using the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm as a more efficient and objective machine learning-based solution. A total of 1,000 loan history records were processed using RapidMiner software, taking into account variables such as salary, years of employment, loan amount, monthly installment, employment status, monthly expenses, number of dependents, housing status, age, and collateral value. The model’s performance was evaluated using a confusion matrix and classification metrics including accuracy, precision, recall, and kappa. The results indicate that the SVM model achieved an accuracy of 90.05%, precision of 90.13%, recall of 90.05%, and f1 score of 90,08%, reflecting a strong performance in classifying borrower eligibility. The application of this method makes a significant contribution to the development of data driven decision support systems within cooperative environments. This finding expands the scientific understanding in the field of microfinance and supports the implementation of artificial intelligence technologies in making decisions that are more precise, rapid, and accurate.
Keywords: cooperative; eligibility prediction; machine learning; non-performing loan; SVM
Abstrak: Kredit macet merupakan salah satu permasalahan utama yang dihadapi koperasi, terutama ketika proses penilaian kelayakan peminjam masih dilakukan secara manual. Pendekatan ini cenderung lambat, subjektif, dan berisiko menghasilkan keputusan yang kurang akurat. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membangun model prediksi kelayakan peminjam menggunakan algoritma Support Vector Machine (SVM) sebagai solusi berbasis machine learning yang lebih efisien dan objektif. Sebanyak 1.000 data riwayat pinjaman diolah menggunakan tools RapidMiner dengan mempertimbangkan variabel: gaji, lama bekerja, besar pinjaman, angsuran per bulan, status pegawai, pengeluaran bulanan, jumlah tanggungan, status rumah, umur, dan nilai jaminan. Evaluasi model dilakukan menggunakan confusion matrix dan metrik klasifikasi seperti akurasi, presisi, recall, dan kappa. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa model SVM mencapai akurasi 90,05%, presisi 90,13%, recall 90,05%, dan f1 score 90,08%, yang mencerminkan performa model yang sangat baik dalam mengklasifikasikan kelayakan peminjam. Penerapan metode ini memberikan kontribusi penting dalam pengembangan sistem pendukung keputusan berbasis data di lingkungan koperasi. Temuan ini memperluas wawasan keilmuan di bidang keuangan mikro dan mendukung penerapan teknologi kecerdasan buatan dalam pengambilan keputusan yang lebih tepat, cepat, dan akurat.
Kata Kunci: koperasi; kredit macet; machine learning; prediksi kelayakan; SVM
Abstract:Abstract: Information Technology has impacted various sectors, including education. Learning Management Systems (LMS) are designed to facilitate lecturers and students in accessing academic activities such as online learning.…
ning. This study aims to analyze the effectiveness of Learning Management Systems (LMS) among higher education institutions in Indonesia. This analysis is crucial for assessing the effectiveness of LMS use by universities in Indonesia, enabling investments in LMS to yield optimal results. The study employed the D&M IS Success Model and PLS-SEM to evaluate the relationships between various variables, including system, information, service quality, user satisfaction, and benefits. Simple random sampling was used to collect data from 170 universities in Indonesia. This study employed PLS-SEM to investigate the observed variables, including validity and reliability testing, which involves assessing reliability, convergent validity, and discriminant validity. This current study found that all the hypotheses were accepted with p-values below 0,05. These findings contribute to universities paying attention to aspects of system, information, and service quality in Learning Management Systems (LMS) to improve user satisfaction and create a positive perception of benefits. Therefore, this research yields significant results that contribute to higher education in Indonesia, as well as the advancement of knowledge in management information systems.
Keywords: delone and mclean; information system success; LMS; SEM-PLS.
Abstrak: Teknologi Informasi telah memengaruhi berbagai sektor, termasuk pendidikan. Learning Management System (LMS) dirancang untuk memfasilitasi dosen dan mahasiswa dalam mengakses kegiatan akademik seperti pembelajaran daring. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis efektivitas penggunaan Learning Management System (LMS) di perguruan tinggi di Indonesia. Analisis ini penting untuk menilai sejauh mana efektivitas penggunaan LMS oleh universitas-universitas di Indonesia, sehingga investasi dalam LMS dapat mem-berika n hasil yang optimal.Penelitian ini menggunakan model D&M IS Success Model dan metode PLS-SEM untuk mengevaluasi hubungan antara berbagai variabel, termasuk kuali-tas sistem, informasi, layanan, kepuasan pengguna, dan manfaat. Teknik simple random sampling digunakan untuk mengumpulkan data dari 170 perguruan tinggi di Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan PLS-SEM untuk mengkaji variabel-variabel yang diamati, ter-masuk pengujian validitas dan reliabilitas, yang mencakup penilaian reliabilitas, validitas konvergen, dan validitas diskriminan. Hasil dari penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa semua hipotesis diterima dengan nilai p di bawah 0,05. Temuan ini mendorong universitas untuk memberikan perhatian pada aspek kualitas sistem, informasi, dan layanan dalam penggunaan LMS guna meningkatkan kepuasan pengguna dan menciptakan persepsi posi-tif terhadap manfaatnya. Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini memberikan hasil yang signifikan bagi perguruan tinggi di Indonesia serta turut berkontribusi dalam pengembangan ilmu di bidang sistem informasi manajemen.
Kata kunci: delone and mclean; kesuksesan sistem informasi; LMS; SEM-PLS