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Showing 39 articles found for "Uncertainty"

A New Approach of Investment Project Appraisal Under Risk and Uncertainty

Karnavas, Christos
Abstract: The financial uncertainty in the results of the investment evaluation creates conditions of risk in the decision making of any strategy in the management of the industrial units. The recent crises (economic and pandemic)… have only reinforced the need to explicitly introduce the factor of uncertainty in any new investment decision. The aim of the present paper is to develop a methodological approach contributing to the appraisal of an investment project under risk and uncertainty. Methods from statistical - econometrics, probabilistic analysis, numerical simulation methods and financial analysis are used and combined. The stochastic approach is used through the Monte Carlo simulation to appraisal the uncertainty. Finally, the implementation of probabilistic theory combined with the use of decision trees allows to estimate in a more relevant way the factor of uncertainty considering all perspectives.

DISASTER RISK GOVERNANCE AND SOCIO-ECOLOGICAL VULNERABILITY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF REMPANG ISLAND

Oktaviane, Diga Putri, Yustina, Yustina
Abstract: The development of Rempang Island through the Rempang Eco-City project has become one of Indonesia’s strategic initiatives to promote investment, industrialization, and regional economic growth in coastal areas. While the… the project is expected to strengthen economic competitiveness and attract large-scale investment, its implementation has generated significant social, environmental, and governance challenges. Existing studies on Rempang have primarily focused on land disputes, relocation issues, and agrarian conflicts, with limited attention given to disaster risk governance and socio-ecological vulnerability perspectives. This study aims to analyze the development of Rempang Island through the lens of Disaster Risk Governance (DRG) and socio-ecological vulnerability to understand how development policies, environmental change, and governance arrangements interact in shaping risks within coastal regions. This study employs a qualitative approach using literature review and policy analysis. Data were collected from government regulations, official reports, public policy documents, human rights reports, academic publications, and other credible secondary sources. The analytical framework integrates disaster risk governance, socio-ecological vulnerability, and public policy theories. The findings indicate that the Rempang conflict should not be understood solely as an agrarian dispute or community resistance to relocation. Instead, it reflects broader governance challenges associated with integrating disaster risk considerations into coastal development policies. The project has the potential to generate socio-ecological vulnerabilities related to land tenure uncertainty, livelihood transformation, cultural identity concerns, environmental pressures, and limited stakeholder participation. The study argues that sustainable coastal development depends not only on economic investment but also on the capacity of governance systems to manage emerging risks through collaborative, adaptive, and inclusive approaches. The article contributes to the literature by positioning the Rempang case as a governance-of-risk issue and highlighting the need to integrate economic development, environmental sustainability, and disaster risk reduction within coastal governance frameworks.

PUBLIC POLICY EVALUATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL GOVERNANCE OF THE REMPANG ECO CITY PROJECT : LESSONS FROM A CONTESTED NATIONAL STRATEGIC PROJECT IN INDONESIA

Meriza, Rika, Yustina, Yustina
Abstract: This study aims to analyze public policy evaluation and environmental governance issues surrounding the Rempang Eco City Project in Indonesia, particularly following its exclusion from the National Strategic Project agenda.… da. The research employs a qualitative approach using a case study method and systematic literature review from government regulations, scientific journals, environmental organization reports, official investigations, and national media coverage related to Rempang Island. Data were analyzed using public policy and environmental mitigation perspectives. The findings indicate that the Rempang Eco City policy generated serious social conflicts, ecological threats, and legal uncertainty due to weak community participation during the policy formulation process. From an environmental mitigation perspective, the industrialization of Rempang Island has the potential to trigger coastal ecosystem destruction, air and water pollution, coastal abrasion, loss of fishermen’s livelihoods, and prolonged social conflict. The government’s recent decision to remove Rempang Eco City from the National Strategic Project list is considered an important corrective policy. However, unresolved legal and environmental governance issues remain. Policy evaluation based on effectiveness, efficiency, adequacy, equity, responsiveness, and appropriateness demonstrates that the Rempang Eco City policy failed to fulfill the principles of sustainable development and good governance.

DETERMINANTS OF DIVIDEND POLICY AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR STOCK RETURNS: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF COMPANIES LISTED ON THE INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE 2019-2024

Munadjat, Baliyah, Gursida, Hari, Indrayono, Yohanes
Abstract: This study aims to analyze the determinants of dividend policy and their implications for stock returns among companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) during the 2019–2024 period. Specifically, the study examines… examines the effects of Return on Assets (ROA), Current Ratio (CR), Debt-to-Equity Ratio (DER), Sales Growth (SG), and Firm Size (SIZE) on Dividend Payout Ratio (DPR), as well as the impact of DPR on stock returns. The research employs a quantitative approach using secondary data obtained from the annual financial reports of dividend-paying companies listed on the IDX. The sample consists of 822 firm-year observations selected through purposive sampling. Data analysis was conducted using path analysis with multiple regression models, supported by classical assumption tests including normality, heteroscedasticity, multicollinearity, and autocorrelation tests. The results indicate that during the overall period of 2019–2024, ROA, DER, and SG significantly and negatively affect DPR, while CR and SIZE do not have significant effects. Furthermore, CR negatively affects stock returns, whereas SG and DPR have positive and significant effects on stock returns. The findings also reveal that the relationships among financial performance, dividend policy, and stock returns vary across pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis periods. Overall, dividend policy plays an important mediating role in influencing stock returns, particularly during and after periods of financial uncertainty. These findings provide valuable insights for investors, corporate managers, and policymakers in formulating dividend and investment decisions under different economic conditions.

THE EFFECT OF JOB INSECURITY AND JOB SATISFACTION ON TURNOVER INTENTION OF CONTRACT EMPLOYEES AT PT ADETEX BANJARAN

Kristin Nurhayati, Dadang Munandar
Abstract: This study aims to analyze the effect of job insecurity and job satisfaction on the turnover intention of contract employees at PT Adetex Banjaran. Employment conditions in the textile industry indicate a relatively high… level of job uncertainty, particularly for contract employees who experience changes in work schedules, income fluctuations, and limited guarantees of job continuity. These conditions have the potential to reduce job satisfaction and encourage employees’ intention to leave the company. This research employs a quantitative approach using a survey method. The research population consists of all contract employees at PT Adetex Banjaran, with the sample determined using a proportional sampling technique. Data were collected through the distribution of questionnaires developed based on indicators of job insecurity, job satisfaction, and turnover intention. Data analysis was conducted using descriptive and inferential statistical techniques with the assistance of SPSS software, including validity and reliability tests, classical assumption tests, correlation analysis, multiple linear regression analysis, coefficient of determination, and partial and simultaneous hypothesis testing. The results indicate that job insecurity has a positive and significant effect on turnover intention, meaning that the higher the level of job insecurity perceived by employees, the greater their tendency to leave the company. In addition, job satisfaction has a negative and significant effect on turnover intention, indicating that higher job satisfaction leads to a lower intention to leave the organization. Simultaneously, job insecurity and job satisfaction have a significant effect on the turnover intention of contract employees at PT Adetex Banjaran. These findings highlight the importance of human resource management practices that focus on enhancing job security and job satisfaction in order to reduce turnover intention. This study is expected to serve as a consideration for company management in formulating more stable, fair, and sustainable employment policies, as well as a reference for future research in the field of human resource management.  

THE ROLE OF CORPORATE GOVERNANCE IN STRENGTHENING ORGANIZATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT: A Systematic Literature Review

Fardhan M Nur Poloalo, Fityan Halid, Sahmin Noholo
Abstract: The increasing complexity and uncertainty of the organizational environment demands a management system capable of anticipating various risks in a structured manner. Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) is a comprehensive approach… proach to managing organizational risk, but its implementation often fails to run optimally without the support of strong corporate governance. This study aims to examine the role of corporate governance in strengthening organizational risk management through a systematic literature review. The research method used is a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) of relevant national and international journals. The results of the study indicate that corporate governance plays a strategic role in ensuring the effectiveness of ERM implementation through oversight mechanisms, clarity of responsibilities, and the integration of risk into strategic decision-making. This study provides a conceptual contribution by presenting a synthesis of the literature on the relationship between governance and risk management as a basis for developing more transparent and accountable organizational practices.

THE EFFECT OF BUDGET PARTICIPATION ON THE ACCURACY OF PROFIT PLANNING: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON MSMES TYPICAL SOUVENIRS OF AMBON

Rita JD Atarwaman, Febriana Romauli Manurung, Nurhamna Rahmatulah, Chusnul Tehuayo
Abstract: This study aims to empirically analyze the influence of budget participation on the accuracy of profit planning in Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) that produce special Ambon souvenirs. The accuracy of profit… planning is an important indicator of the success of MSME financial management, considering their limited resources and high levels of environmental uncertainty. This study adopts a quantitative approach using a survey method. Primary data was collected through a questionnaire distributed to 30 owners or managers of MSMEs for special Ambon souvenirs, which were selected using purposive sampling. Data analysis was carried out using descriptive statistics and simple linear regression analysis. The results of the study show that budget participation has a positive and significant effect on the accuracy of profit planning. These findings show that the higher the level of involvement of MSME actors in the budgeting process, the more accurate the profit planning will be. This research theoretically contributes to the development of managerial accounting in the context of MSMEs and provides practitioner implications for business practitioners and local governments in improving the quality of MSME financial management.

LEGAL DISCOVERY BY JUDGES IN ADDRESSING THE AMBIGUITY OF “DEALER” AND “USER” ELEMENTS IN ARTICLES 114, 112, AND 127 OF THE NARCOTICS LAW

Irwan Triadi, Dhikma Heradika, Abelmart Sihombing, Bayu Giri Atmojo
Abstract: The ambiguity of the elements “dealer” and “user” in Articles 114, 112, and 127 of Law Number 35 of 2009 on Narcotics creates legal uncertainty in the practice of criminal justice. These three provisions often overlap in… erlap in law enforcement, particularly when investigators and public prosecutors apply more severe charges without comprehensively examining the legal construction of the defendant’s actions, including the social and situational context behind them. This study is a normative legal research that examines the doctrine of judicial legal discovery, principles of criminal law, and the principle of proportionality in sentencing in a more in-depth and structured manner. The results of the study indicate that judges have the authority to interpret the elements of narcotics criminal acts systematically, grammatically, and teleologically to clearly distinguish between “abusive users” and “dealers with the intent to distribute.” Legal discovery is needed to prevent overcriminalization and to ensure the protection of the rights of suspects and defendants throughout the entire criminal justice process. This study concludes that the appropriate method of interpretation is an integration of systematic interpretation, teleological interpretation, and the ratio legis of the Narcotics Law.

ETHICAL AND PEDAGOGICAL IMPLICATIONS OF DEEP LEARNING INTEGRATION IN FOURTH GRADE CLASSROOMS: A CASE STUDY AT SDN 100801 PASAR SEMPURNA

Masrianti Ritonga, Rita Nur’ain Harahap, Yusti Andayati Pasaribu, Anita Adinda
Abstract: This study examines the ethical and pedagogical implications of deep learning integration in fourth-grade classrooms at SDN 100801 Pasar Sempurna, Indonesia. Through classroom observations, semi-structured interviews with… h teachers, and document analysis, the research found that deep learning applications significantly improved student engagement and individualized learning outcomes. However, ethical concerns emerged regarding data privacy, unequal access to digital tools, and limited teacher preparedness. Teachers expressed uncertainty in balancing technological autonomy with moral and pedagogical control. The study concludes that while deep learning supports more adaptive and inclusive learning environments, its ethical implementation remains constrained by insufficient institutional policies and digital literacy. Strengthening teacher competence and establishing transparent ethical frameworks are crucial for ensuring responsible AI integration in primary education. These findings provide practical insights into balancing innovation and ethics in early educational contexts.

LEGAL ANALYSIS OF THE LEGALITY OF MODIFYING AND RESELLING CREATIVE COMMONS-LICENSED DIGITAL PRODUCTS

Nurdiyansyah Sunandar, Firman, Herman Setiawan, Andri, Juaeni, Ahmad, Triestanto, Johannes
Abstract: The rapid proliferation of digital markets has intensified legal challenges surrounding the modification and resale of Creative Commons–licensed digital products in Indonesia. This study conducts a doctrinal analysis of… f the Indonesian Copyright ActLaw No. 28 of 2014) in light of comparative jurisprudence from Japan, Taiwan, and the United States, elucidating how civil-law and common-law systems treat CC licenses. It examines recurring issues ambiguities in “derivative works,” conflicts between non-commercial and commercial exploitation clauses, and failures to observe attribution requirements through practical case studies of software, e-books, music, and video tutorials. Drawing on Satjipto Rahardjo’s progressive legal theory, the research argues for a functional, transformative approach that aligns domestic copyright doctrine with globally harmonized open-licensing principles and substantive justice. The analysis reveals that, under Indonesian law, permissibility hinges on strict adherence to each license’s specific terms; however, current regulations lack clarity, generating legal uncertainty for both creators and users. To address these gaps, the study proposes interpretative guidelines and legislative reforms that (1) define “derivative works” in accord with CC International’s porting model, (2) reconcile non-commercial provisions with legitimate digital markets, and (3) institutionalize attribution standards. Such measures would safeguard creators’ moral and economic rights while fostering equitable digital access and innovation, thereby enhancing Indonesia’s knowledge economy.