Abstract:Inflation is a fundamental measure of macroeconomic stability that negatively impacts the nation's economy and affects many other macroeconomic variables. Thus, in this study, the major objective was based on modeling and…
d forecasting inflation in Ethiopia and its components using a VAR model. The analysis was based on annual data from 1992 to 2021, encompassing 30 years. The results indicated that all five series were non-stationary at the level but stationary after their first differencing at a 5% level of significance. Johansen's cointegration tests were conducted. The results indicated the presence of at least one co-integration relationship between the variables. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was fitted to model short run and long run relationships among inflation and other macro-econometric series such as GDP growth, government expenditure, money supply, and imports, and the result indicated that the coefficient of error correction term is negative (-0.279), which indicated that the fitted VECM model continues to move toward long run equilibrium and converges. Granger causality tests were employed to explore potential causal relationships. Impulse response analysis and variance decomposition were used to determine the short-run interactions among the variables. Finally, using the fitted model, out-of-sample forecasts were produced, yielding forecasted plots and values for the endogenous variables. According to the forecasted inflation rates for the next five years, prices are projected to decrease by approximately 18.0% in 2022, 6.8% in 2023, and then increase by approximately 8.3% in 2024. Subsequently, prices are expected to decrease by approximately 2% in 2025 and 5% in 2026 over the specified time periods.
Abstract:The major of this study was to estimate the impact of Adoption of Small-Scale Irrigation in Dugda district. Data were collected from both primary and secondary data sources. Primary data was collected from 384 household…
heads in four kebeles of the district using structured questionnaire. Descriptive, logit and propensity score matching techniques were used for data analysis. The study finding from the propensity score matching technique revealed that the incomes of adopters of small scale irrigation were increased by 37,696.06ETB per annum. This calls for strengthening the available irrigation facilities and expansion of irrigation sector in the study area.
Abstract:Perkembangan Islam di dunia tidak hanya sebatas ranah akidah saja, tetapi juga pada ranah-ranah yang lain seperti ranah sosial, politik, ekonomi, dan pendidikan. Di Afrika, negara-negara yang menjadi basis Islam sejak zaman…
man klasik hingga zaman modern diantaranya, Mesir, Sudan, Ethiopia (Afrika Timur), dan Maroko (Afrika Barat). Perkembangan Islam di berbagai bidang inilah yang menjadikan Islam sempurna dan mudah diterima di semua kalangan. Meskipun begitu seiring berjalannya waktu akibat dari pengaruh dari agama-agama lain seperti Kristen menyebabkan munculnya minoritas Muslim. Beberapa faktor yang menyebabkan terbentuknya minoritas muslim yaitu, tanah-tanah muslim di kuasai oleh pejaja, gerakan pindah agaman dari non muslim menjadi muslim, emigrasi muslim ke daerah-daerah yang penduduk muslimnya kecil. Tulisan ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui dan mengkaji kehidupan sosial, politik, ekonomi dan kultural Muslim minoritas di kawasan Afrika Barat dan Afrika Timur. Adapun metode yang penulis gunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah metode kualitatif dengan pendekatan penelitian library research (Studi Literature). Hasil penelitian dapat disimpulkan bahwa paradigma ras dan kebudayaan menjadi permasalahan yang sangat krusial dan kaum muslimin umumnya senantiasa terjerumus pada simbol-simbol keagamaan sehingga kestabilan politik akan tetap sulit di capai. Kehidupan sosial-budaya masyarakat Minoritas Muslim di Afrika sering kali terjadi diskriminasi oleh pihak mayoritas. Keadaan ekonomi masyarakat Muslim minoritas di Afrika sebagian besar masyarakatnya bergantung pada pertanian. Keadaan kultural masyarakat minoritas Muslim di Afrika masih mempertahankan kepercayaan adat, melakukan ritual untuk leluhur.