Abstract:Abstract: The Asahan Regency Animal Husbandry and Animal Health Service carries out outreach activities on the level of demand for boiler chicken, which means that the department must be more active in collecting data on…
the volume of boiler chicken every year because consumer demand for chicken continues to increase and instability often occurs. Where in the period 2012 to 2024 there was a significant increase in demand. So it becomes an obstacle in the stock of chickens in the Asahan Regency market which must be prepared. If there is too much chicken supply but the demand for chicken consumption decreases then this will result in a loss, conversely if the demand for chicken consumption increases but the chicken supply cannot be prepared then this will be a loss for chicken traders and distributors. To increase the accuracy of the estimates, the use of the Single Exponential Smoothing Method is proposed. This method smooths past values with exponential weights, placing greater emphasis on recent data. Using data from the last 12 (twelve) years as reference data for recording the past for forecasting experiments for the next 1 (one) month. Experiments using different Alphas test accuracy in actual situations. The results of the experiment with an alpha of 0.9 are almost the same as the actual value in predicting the situation one year into the future with the lowest error, namely MAPE 7.4% and forecasting broiler chicken meat supplies of 13661261.46 chickens.
Keywords: broiler chicken; ses method; web based.
Abstrak: Dinas Peternakan dan Kesehatan Hewan Kabupaten Asahan melakukan aktivitas penyuluhan tingkat permintaan ayam boiler dimana pihak dinas harus lebih aktif dalam melakukan pendataan volume ayam boiler setiap tahunnya karena permintaan konsumen terhadap ayam sering terjadi ketidakstabilan. Dimana pada periode tahun 2012 sampai dengan 2024 terjadi kenaikan permintaan yangsignifikan. Sehingga menjadi kendala dalam stok ayam di pasar Kabupaten Asahan yang harus disiapkan. Jika persediaan ayam terlalu banyak namun permintaan akan konsumsi ayam menurun maka ini akan manjadi kerugian, sebaliknya jika permintaan akan konsumsi ayam meningkat namun persediaan ayam tidak dapat disiapkan maka ini menjadi kerugian bagi pihak pedagang dan distributor ayam. Untuk meningkatkan ketepatan perkiraan, penggunaan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing diusulkan. Metode ini menghaluskan nilai masa lalu dengan bobot eksponensial, memberikan penekanan lebih besar pada data terbaru. Penggunaan data 12 tahun terakhir sebagai data acuan pencatatan masa lalu untuk percobaan peramalan untuk 1 (satu) bulan kedepan. Penggunaan Alpha yang berbeda menguji akurasi dalam situasi aktual. Hasil dari penelitian dengan alpha 0,9 hampir sama dengan nilai aktual dalam meramalkan keadaan satu tahun ke depan dengan error yang paling rendah yaitu MAPE 7,4% dan peramalan persediaan daging ayam broiler sebanyak 13661261,46 ayam.
Kata kunci: berbasis web; daging ayam broiler; metode ses.
Abstract:Abstract: Toko Ratna Jaya is a business in the fashion sector that sells women's robes and is experiencing instability in its sales because Toko Ratna Jaya is unable to predict their sales for the following month. Ratna…
Jaya Shop currently carries out forecasting only by relying on the owner's predictions. However, this approach is less efficient and can lead to losses or increased stock costs if forecasting is inaccurate. To increase the accuracy of the estimates, the use of the Single Exponential Smoothing Method is proposed. This method smooths past values with exponential weights, placing greater emphasis on recent data. Use of data from the last 1 (one) year as reference data for recording the past for forecasting experiments for the next 1 (one) month. Experiments using different Alphas test accuracy in actual situations. The results of the experiment with an alpha of 0.2 are almost the same as the actual value in predicting the situation one month into the future with the lowest error, namely MAPE 12.05% and forecasting sales of gamis of 1,476 pcs.
Keywords: forecasting; gamis; sales; single exponential smoothing (SES); toko ratna jaya.
Abstrak: Toko Ratna Jaya adalah usaha di bidang fashion yang menjual baju gamis wanita dan sedang mengalami ketidakstabilan dalam penjualannya dikarenakan Toko Ratna Jaya tidak mampu meramalkan penjualan mereka untuk bulan berikutnya. Toko Ratna Jaya saat ini melakukan peramalan hanya dengan mengandalkan paraduga pemiliknya. Namun, pendekatan ini kurang efisien dan dapat menyebabkan kerugian atau peningkatan biaya stok jika peramalan tidak akurat. Untuk meningkatkan ketepatan perkiraan, penggunaan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing diusulkan. Metode ini menghaluskan nilai masa lalu dengan bobot eksponensial, memberikan penekanan lebih besar pada data terbaru. Penggunaan data 1 (satu) tahun terakhir sebagai data acuan pencatatan masa lalu untuk percobaan peramalan untuk 1 (satu) bulan kedepan. Eksperimen menggunakan Alpha yang berbeda menguji akurasi dalam situasi aktual. Hasil dari eksperimen dengan alpha 0,2 hampir sama dengan nilai aktual dalam meramalkan keadaan satu bulan ke depan dengan error yang paling rendah yaitu MAPE 12,05% dan peramalan penjualan gamis sebanyak 1.476 pcs.
Kata kunci: gamis; penjualan; peramalan; single exponential smoothing (ses); toko ratna jaya.
Abstract:Abstract: Distributor Center (DC) Ria Sari, one of the official herbal medicine agents from PT HPAI (Herba Penawar Alwahida Indonesia) company. Sales of herbal medicines at the Ria Sari Anggriani Distributor Center (DC)…
often experience instability. Where in the period March 2022 to May 2022 there was a significant increase in sales. This resulted in the Ria Sari Anggriani Distributor Center (DC) being unable to serve requests for available herbal medicines. So that it becomes an obstacle in the stock of herbal medicines that must be prepared. If there are too many drug stocks but the demand for herbal medicines is decreasing then this will result in a loss, conversely if the demand for medicines increases but the stock of herbal medicines cannot be prepared then this will be a loss for DC Ria Sari Anggriani. For this reason, it is necessary to do a forecasting/prediction technique, using the Single Exponential Smoothing Method . The purpose of the forecasting/prediction will be to assist in terms of the supply of herbal medicines in the following month's period. The results of testing this method were obtained in the period June 2023, requests for 167 herbal medicines, 178 Extra foods, 189 Etta Goat Milk, 91 Herbal Toothpastes, 74 products of Propolis Soap.
Keywords: herbal medicine; prediction; single exponential smoothing
Abstrak: Distributor Center (DC) Ria Sari salah satu agen resmi obat herbal dari perusahaan PT HPAI (Herba Penawar Alwahida Indonesia). Penjualan obat herbal pada Distributor Center (DC) Ria Sari Anggriani sering terjadi ketidak stabilan. Dimana pada periode Maret 2022 sampai dengan Mei 2023 terjadi kenaikan penjualan yang seknifikan. Ini mengakibatkan Distributor Center (DC) Ria Sari Anggriani tidak dapat melayani permintaan akan obat herbal yang tersedia. Sehingga menjadi kendala dalam stok obat herbal yang harus disiapkan. Jika stok obat terlalu banyak namun permintaan akan obat herbal menurun maka ini akan manjedi kerugian, sebaliknya jika permintaan akan obat meningkat namun stok obat herbal tidak dapat disiapkan maka ini menjadi kerugian bagi DC Ria Sari Anggriani. Untuk itu perlu dilakukan suatu teknik peramalan/prediksi, menggunakan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing (SES). Tujuan dari peramalan/prediksi nantinya dapat membantu dalam hal penyediaan akan obat herbal pada periode bulan berikutnya. Hasil dari pengujian terhadap metode ini diperoleh pada periode Juni 2023, perminaan akan obat herbal 167 , Extrafood 178, Etta Goat Milk 189, Pasta Gigi Herbal 91, Sabun Propolis 74 produk. Hasil simpulan dari penelitian ini koefisien nilai alpha (α) mempengaruhi seberapa besar pengaruh data masa lalu terhadap peramalan masa depan.
Kata Kunci: obat herbal; prediksi; single exponential smoothing
Abstract:Abstract: PT. Energi Mandiri Internasional was established on November 22, 2011 as a reinsurance broker consultant and risk management consultancy to ensure the financial stability of reinsurance service users. The company's…
ny's website; energyre-int.com as a place to self advertise the company with an electronic mail feature to answer questions from potential clients. Heuristic evaluation method was used to test the feasibility of the user interface and analyze the appearance of the interface from the energyre-int.com website. This test was conducted using questionnaires with 34 respondents of reinsurance consulting services users. The results obtained from testing on the Severity rating scale and using the Eight Golden Rules are recommendations for improvement on aspects that have a value of 1 which means that there are errors but can be ignored; Help and documentation with a value of 0.99, the Error Prevention aspect with a value of 0.98, and the Match between system and the real world aspect with a value of 0.91.
Keywords: Heuristic Evaluation; Feasibility Analysis; Reinsurance; User interface; Recommendation.
Abstrak: PT. Energi Mandiri Internasional didirikan pada 22 November 2011 sebagai pialang dan konsultan reasuransi dan konsultasi manajemen risiko untuk memastikan stabilitas keuangan dari pengguna jasa reasuransi. Website perusahaan tersebut; energyre-int.com sebagai wadah untuk mengiklankan perusahaan dengan fitur surat elektronik untuk menjawab pertanyaan-pertanyaan calon klien. Heuristic evaluation merupakan metode yang digunakan untuk menguji kelayakan user interface dan menganalisis tampilan antar muka dari website energyre-int.com. Pengujian ini dilakukan menggunakan kuesioner dengan 34 responden pengguna jasa konsultasi reasuransi. Hasil yang didapat dari pengujian dalam skala Severity rating dan menggunakan aturan Eight Golden Rules adalah rekomendasi perbaikan pada aspek yang memiliki nilai 1 artinya ada kesalahan tapi bisa diabaikan; Help and documentation dengan nilai 0,99, aspek Error Prevention dengan nilai 0,98, dan aspek Match between system and the real world dengan nilai 0,91.
Kata kunci: Evaluasi Heuristik; Analisis Kelayakan; Reasuransi; Antarmuka Pengguna; Rekomendasi.
Abstract:The challenges posed by climate change and the decline of biodiversity to the sustainability of global agricultural systems are serious.Agroforestry has emerged as a strategy with the potential to enhance the resilience…
of agricultural systems while conserving biodiversity amidst the threats of climate change.This study aims to evaluate the potential of agroforestry to enhance biodiversity and the resilience of agricultural systems to climate change in Dulamayo, Gorontalo. The research methodology is based on vegetation analysis and the calculation of biodiversity indices, with data collection encompassing measurements of tree characteristics and species identification.The results indicate the presence of 17 tree species with a total of 154 individuals, where Candlenut (Aleurites molucana) and Sugar Palm (Arenga pinnata) dominate with proportions of 22.73% and 20.13%, respectively. The Shannon-Wiener diversity index yielded a moderate value (H' = 2.311) with a high evenness level (E = 0.816), indicating a high ecosystem stability.The findings suggest that the agroforestry system in Dulamayo plays a crucial role in supporting biodiversity and the resilience of ecosystems to climate change through its complex and diverse vegetation structure.
Abstract:This research aims to explore the role of the Deposit Insurance Corporation (LPS) in protecting customers when banks fail. The research methods used include policy analysis, case studies of failed banks, and reviews of related…
elated laws. It is hoped that the research results will provide a deeper understanding of the effectiveness of the legal protection provided by LPS to customers in the context of bank failures and the related compensation claims process. The Deposit Insurance Corporation (LPS) has a crucial role in protecting customer deposits when banks experience liquidation. In this context, LPS functions as a legal protection strategy for customer deposits held in banks. This action is important to maintain public confidence in banking amidst economic uncertainty. In response to the 1998 monetary crisis, the Indonesian government issued a policy of guaranteeing bank payments, including public deposits, through LPS. The importance of LPS is revealed when banks experience failures that have the potential to threaten the security of customer funds. In this situation, LPS guarantees the customer's refund up to a certain limit, providing the necessary financial protection. This creates a sense of security for customers and promotes banking system stability. With LPS, customers can be assured that their funds are safe even if unexpected events occur in the banking world. The role of LPS as a deposit insurance institution is inherent in the government's efforts to regulate and supervise the financial sector. LPS plays a role as the front guard in protecting customer interests, maintaining financial system stability, and preventing potential losses that could arise due to the possibility of bank failure.
Abstract:Risk based audit (RBA) is an approach that is increasingly being applied in the banking sector to increase the effectiveness of risk management and compliance with regulations. This approach helps banks identify high-risk…
k areas and prioritize audits according to the level of risk. This research uses qualitative methods with a literature research approach. Data sources consist of scientific journal articles, books, reports and documents related to risk-based and banking audits. Research findings show that the RBA has several key roles in improving banking performance. First, RBA improves operational efficiency and effectiveness by focusing audits on high-risk areas. Second, the RBA enables banks to proactively identify and manage risks, thereby strengthening financial and operational stability. Third, the RBA ensures that banks are more compliant with regulations and industry standards, reducing the risk of sanctions and fines. In addition, the implementation of RBA encourages the formation of a strong risk management culture and the use of information technology to support the risk management process. Risk based audit plays a significant role in improving banking performance. By improving operational efficiency, managing risk proactively, ensuring regulatory compliance, establishing a strong risk management culture, and leveraging technology, banks can achieve stability and better performance in the long term. These findings support the importance of implementing RBA as the main strategy in risk management and supervision in the banking sector.
Abstract:This research aims to investigate the financial performance of a company by focusing on liquidity ratio analysis and market ratio analysis. Financial performance is a key indicator in evaluating the stability and financial…
al efficiency of a company. Liquidity ratios and market ratios are used to measure the financial performance of PT Gudang Garam Tbk as a case study during the period 2021-2023. By analyzing liquidity ratios and market ratios, this research aims to provide a deeper understanding of the financial health and market valuation of PT Gudang Garam Tbk. The research findings explain that overall, PT Gudang Garam Tbk needs to focus on better liquidity management and strategic initiatives. Management should be proactive in analyzing the factors affecting the financial performance of the company and take necessary actions to improve the situation. With careful management and the right strategies, PT Gudang Garam Tbk is expected to improve its financial performance and maintain stability in the long term
Abstract:The important role of freedom of expression as a basis for equality, especially within the framework of constitutional law, is very important in Indonesia. This research uses normative juridical qualitative methods to obtain…
tain a comprehensive understanding of the legal aspects that regulate freedom of expression in the country. Recognized as an essential human right, freedom of expression is explicitly protected by the 1945 Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia. The focus of this research is to examine the legal norms governing freedom of expression, which include provisions such as Article 28E paragraph (3) and Article 19 of the Constitution 1945, as well as other statutory regulations. The research results show that freedom of expression is recognized as an inalienable right by the state and is one of the foundations for the realization of a just and democratic society. Although freedom of expression is guaranteed by the constitution, this research also highlights the obstacles and challenges in its implementation. In Indonesia, challenges arise in navigating diverse interpretations of freedom of expression, with concerns about potential exploitation by entities harming public interest. Striking a balance between freedom of expression and societal stability/security is deemed crucial. The research aims to better understand the complexity of freedom of expression within the country's constitutional law and its role in promoting equality. This research aims to find useful insights for creating better policies. These policies should strike a good balance between individual freedom and public interest, ultimately fostering a fair and democratic society.
Abstract:This study explores the recontextualization of Farid Esack's liberation theology in addressing the challenges of VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity) in the 21st century. Esack, a progressive Muslim theologian,…
logian, focuses on social justice, pluralism, and advocacy for the oppressed as a response to global uncertainties arising from economic instability, political conflict, and environmental crises. The research employs critical discourse analysis to examine how Esack's interpretation can provide a critical framework for Muslims to respond to the changing times full of uncertainty. The findings reveal that Esack's liberation theology offers an inclusive foundation for building global solidarity across religions and nations, emphasizing principles of social justice and equality. Esack's approach also promotes flexibility in religious interpretation, which is crucial in facing moral ambiguities and socio-political complexities in the modern era. This study aims to contribute to the development of a more contextual and responsive Islamic interpretation that addresses global challenges.