Abstract:This study examines the effects of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), world gold prices, world oil prices, and the rupiah exchange rate on the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) in Indonesia. The study uses monthly…
secondary data from January 2015 to December 2025, comprising 132 observations. CSPI data were obtained from the Indonesia Stock Exchange, DJIA, gold price, and oil price data were obtained from Investing.com, while exchange rate data were sourced from Bank Indonesia. The analysis employed the two-step Engle-Granger Error Correction Model (EG-ECM) to identify long-run relationships and short-run adjustment dynamics. The long-run results show that gold prices, world oil prices, and the DJIA have positive and significant effects on the CSPI, whereas the rupiah exchange rate has a negative but insignificant effect. In the short run, the exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on the CSPI, while gold prices, oil prices, and the DJIA have positive and significant effects. The Error Correction Term coefficient of -0.1325 is negative and significant, indicating that approximately 13.25% of short-run disequilibrium is corrected each month toward long-run equilibrium. These findings imply that investors and policymakers should closely monitor global market conditions, commodity price movements, and exchange rate volatility to support investment decisions and maintain Indonesian capital market stability
Abstract:Inflation is a fundamental measure of macroeconomic stability that negatively impacts the nation's economy and affects many other macroeconomic variables. Thus, in this study, the major objective was based on modeling and…
d forecasting inflation in Ethiopia and its components using a VAR model. The analysis was based on annual data from 1992 to 2021, encompassing 30 years. The results indicated that all five series were non-stationary at the level but stationary after their first differencing at a 5% level of significance. Johansen's cointegration tests were conducted. The results indicated the presence of at least one co-integration relationship between the variables. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was fitted to model short run and long run relationships among inflation and other macro-econometric series such as GDP growth, government expenditure, money supply, and imports, and the result indicated that the coefficient of error correction term is negative (-0.279), which indicated that the fitted VECM model continues to move toward long run equilibrium and converges. Granger causality tests were employed to explore potential causal relationships. Impulse response analysis and variance decomposition were used to determine the short-run interactions among the variables. Finally, using the fitted model, out-of-sample forecasts were produced, yielding forecasted plots and values for the endogenous variables. According to the forecasted inflation rates for the next five years, prices are projected to decrease by approximately 18.0% in 2022, 6.8% in 2023, and then increase by approximately 8.3% in 2024. Subsequently, prices are expected to decrease by approximately 2% in 2025 and 5% in 2026 over the specified time periods.
Abstract:The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of the Federal Funds Rate before and during the Covid-19 pandemic on economic stability in five developing countries in the Southeast Asian region which are members of an…
n economic and geopolitical organization, namely the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN) to see short-term relationships. and long-term during that period. The indicators of economic stability used are the benchmark interest rate for deposits, the reference interest rate for loans, the balance of payments which includes exports and imports, inflation, exchange rates, and the money supply. In this study, the method used was the quantitative method and the data obtained was secondary data sourced from International Financial Statistics (IFS) from January 2015 to December 2022 which used the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach in the Eviews 9 application. The results found indicated that in the long run, the existence of FFR volatility has a positive effect on the Deposit and Export Reference Rates. While those that have a negative effect are Loan Reference Rates, Imports, Exchange Rate Inflation, and Money Supply. In the short term, the existence of the FFR interest rate has a positive effect on the Reference Rates for Deposits, Imports, and Inflation. While those that have a negative effect are Loan Reference Rates, Exports, Exchange Rates, and Money Supply
Abstract:Pelaksanaan kebijakan pemasyarakatan dalam pemenuhan hak pelayanan kesehatan warga binaan dengan HIV/AIDS masih menghadapi persoalan mendasar yang bersifat menyeluruh. Meskipun Undang-Undang Nomor 22 Tahun 2022 tentang Pemasyarakatan…
emasyarakatan secara tegas mengamanatkan bahwa setiap warga binaan berhak mendapatkan pelayanan kesehatan yang setara dengan standar nasional, realitas di lapangan menunjukkan bahwa keterbatasan tenaga medis, lemahnya sosialisasi regulasi kepada pelaksana di level operasional, prosedur birokrasi yang belum sepenuhnya disesuaikan dengan regulasi terbaru, serta melemahnya jejaring pendampingan dari lembaga swadaya masyarakat menjadi hambatan nyata dalam pelaksanaannya. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis implementasi kebijakan pemasyarakatan dalam pemenuhan hak pelayanan kesehatan warga binaan dengan HIV/AIDS di Lapas Narkotika Kelas IIA Jakarta menggunakan model implementasi kebijakan George C. Edwards III. Metode yang digunakan adalah kualitatif deskriptif dengan teknik pengumpulan data melalui wawancara mendalam, observasi lapangan, dan studi dokumentasi terhadap 13 informan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa implementasi telah berjalan, namun belum optimal, dengan dimensi disposisi menjadi kekuatan utama, sementara keterbatasan tenaga medis dan kesenjangan sosialisasi regulasi menjadi hambatan paling kritis. Melalui empat dimensi Edwards III, yaitu komunikasi, sumber daya, disposisi, dan struktur birokrasi, penelitian ini mengidentifikasi celah sekaligus kekuatan dalam pelaksanaan kebijakan agar warga binaan dengan HIV/AIDS dapat memperoleh pelayanan kesehatan yang manusiawi dan bermartabat.
Kata Kunci: Pelayanan Kesehatan, HIV/AIDS, Implementasi Kebijakan, Pemasyarakatan.
The implementation of correctional policy faces ongoing systemic obstacles in fulfilling the health service rights of inmates with HIV/AIDS. Despite Law Number 22 of 2022 on Corrections mandating equivalent health services for inmates, practical challenges persist, including a shortage of medical personnel, inadequate dissemination of regulations, misaligned bureaucratic procedures, and limited support from non-governmental organizations. This study argues that these barriers significantly hinder the realization of humane and dignified health services for inmates with HIV/AIDS. Using George C. Edwards III's policy implementation model, the study examines these issues at the Class IIA Narcotics Correctional Institution in Jakarta. Employing a descriptive qualitative approach, it draws on in-depth interviews, field observations, and document analysis with 13 informants. Findings indicate that while policy implementation is underway, it is not yet fully optimal; disposition emerges as a strength, but medical resource limitations and weak regulatory communication remain significant barriers. Through Edwards III’s four dimensions—communication, resources, disposition, and bureaucratic structure—the study identifies gaps and strengths to guide more effective health service delivery for inmates with HIV/AIDS.
Keywords: Health service, HIV/AIDS, Policy Implementation, Prisoner
Abstract:Fire incidents continue to be a major concern. Data from the International Association of Fire and Rescue Services (CTIF) in 2022, recorded > 1.3 million fire incidents worldwide each year, causing more than 15,000 deaths…
s and economic losses. Fire disasters are one of the serious threats in various environments, including Correctional Institutions (Lapas). Prisons have a high potential risk of fire due to various factors, such as the use of unsafe electrical equipment, overcrowding, lack of adequate fire fighting facilities and riots that lead to fires. The purpose of the study was to determine the picture of the attitude of preparedness related to fire disaster management among correctional officers at Pohuwato Prison. The type of quantitative descriptive research , the population of all Correctional Officers at Pohuwato Prison recorded in 2024 was 71 people. Sampling used the Non-Probability Sampling method with the Purposive Sampling technique . The technique was chosen based on certain considerations according to the research criteria. A sample of 59 respondents was obtained. The single variable analyzed was related to the attitude of preparedness. Data were collected through questionnaires and analyzed using reliability and normality tests . The results of the study showed a picture of the attitude of preparedness of correctional officers with a sufficient category of 56 respondents (94.9%). It was concluded that the attitude of preparedness of correctional officers was still sufficient and there was a need for counseling or training related to fire disaster management at Pohuwato Prison.
Abstract:Working mothers with toddlers face dual-role demands that may lead to psychological distress, role conflict, and difficulties in maintaining a balance between work and childcare responsibilities. These challenges make coping…
ping strategies an essential factor in supporting mothers' psychological well-being. This study aims to analyze the coping strategies employed by working mothers with toddlers and identify the factors influencing their selection of coping strategies. The study employed a descriptive qualitative approach using purposive sampling to recruit working mothers with children under five years of age employed at a Correctional Center. Data were collected through in-depth interviews and analyzed using the Miles and Huberman interactive model, while data trustworthiness was ensured through source triangulation and member checking. The findings indicate that the coping strategies adopted by participants include social support, emotional regulation, relaxation activities, and the development of positive perspectives toward work and childcare responsibilities. The selection of these strategies is influenced by family support, personal experiences, job characteristics, the work environment, and individuals' ability to adapt to various demands. The study concludes that the successful management of dual roles among working mothers depends on their ability to integrate multiple coping strategies adaptively according to the situations they encounter. The novelty of this study lies in revealing coping strategies as an adaptive process that integrates social support, emotional regulation, relaxation activities, and positive perceptions of the work environment as part of maintaining a balance between occupational responsibilities and childcare.
Abstract:Inmates in correctional institutions undergo rehabilitation programs that include the development of skills deemed crucial for their lives after being released from prison. Each prisoner is entitled to receive wages or recognition…
ecognition for the efforts they have put into the work they perform. This study focuses on the regulation of rewards for inmates working in correctional facilities, as well as an evaluation of the fairness aspect in their distribution. The study adopts a normative legal analysis approach, utilizing primary legal sources such as laws and government regulations, as well as additional references discussing inmates’ rights in correctional institutions, particularly those related to the payment system for the work they perform. The study finds that the regulations governing inmates’ rights, including those related to wage distribution, are outlined in Article 14 of Law No. 12 of 1995, Government Regulation No. 32 of 1999, and the Minister of Justice Decree No. M.01-PP.02.01 of 1990. From the researcher’s perspective, the distribution of rewards aligns with the principle of fairness because, in addition to receiving rewards, inmates also receive valuable skill training for their future after leaving the correctional institution.
Abstract:Abstract: The school management routinely determines the majors of private students at Madrasah Aliya (MAS) every year. YMPI Private Madrasah Ariyah (MAS) is one of the MAs that implements the 2013 curriculum. One of the…
work programs in the MAS Curriculum is to register for the first year majors which will continue to the second year. In this case, a decision support system (DSS) is a computer interactive system that assists school management in making decisions. In this study the system development method used is the Prototyping Method. Prototyping is a system development method that is widely used. With this method, developers and customers can interact with each other during the system creation process. The system prototype method involves the user directly with analysis and design, very effective for system correction. A decision support system with the SAW (Simple Additive Weighting) method is used to solve the problem of choosing a major. The application of the SAW method is expected to support the decision-making process to choose a major that is in accordance with the students' academic grades while still in junior high schools beforehand as well as the IQ abilities of each student and the results of their interest in the chosen major. The research resulted in an application that is able to determine the choice of majors with the results of an application by determining the value/weight using the SAW method so that it can be determined that Abdul Rozak entered the Science major and Abil Akbar entered the Social Sciences major.
Keywords: decision making system; selection of majors; SAW; criteria.
Abstrak: Pihak manajemen sekolah rutin menentukan jurusan siswa swasta di Madrasah Aliya (MAS) setiap tahun. Madrasah Ariyah Swasta YMPI (MAS) merupakan salah satu MA yang menerapkan kurikulum 2013. Salah satu program kerja dalam Kurikulum MAS adalah mendaftar ke jurusan tahun pertama yang akan melanjutkan ke tahun kedua. Dalam hal ini, sistem pendukung keputusan (DSS) adalah sistem interaktif komputer yang membantu pihak manajemen sekolah dalam mengambil keputusan. Dalam penelitian ini metode pengembangan sistem yang digunakan adalah Metode kuantitatif. Dengan mengumpulkan data berupa angka dengan kriteria yang telah ditentukan mulai dari data nilai akademik IPA dan IPS, Nilai tingkat kecerdasan (IQ) serta nilai minat dari setiap siswa yang diperoleh dari kuisoner.Sistem pendukung keputusan dengan metode SAW (Simple Additive Weighting) digunakan untuk menyelesaikan masalah pemilihan jurusan. Penerapan metode SAW diharapkan dapat mendukung proses pengambilan keputusan untuk memilih jurusan yang sesuai dengan nilai akademik siswa saat masih di sekolah SLTP sebelmumnya serta kemampuan IQ masing-masing siswa serta hasil minat mereka ke jurusan pilihan tersebut. Penelitian menghasilkan aplikasi yang mampu menentukan pilihan jurusan dengan hasil sebuah aplikasi dengan menentukan nilai/bobot dengan menggunakan metode SAW sehingga dapat ditentukan bahwa Abdul Rozak masuk ke jurusan IPA serta Abil Akbar masuk kejurusan IPS.
Kata kunci: sistem penentuan keputusan; pemilihan jurusan; SAW; kriteria
Abstract:Abstract: Rehabilitation programs are essential in correctional systems to equip inmates with the skills and behavioral readiness required for social reintegration. However, rehabilitation program assignment in many correctional…
ectional institutions remains dependent on manual and subjective assessments, which may result in inconsistent decisions. This study develops a Random Forest–based prediction system to support objective and data-driven rehabilitation program determination. A quantitative approach was applied using historical inmate data from January 2023 to January 2025, comprising 2,023 records. The research process included data preprocessing, an 80:20 training–testing split, model training, and performance evaluation using accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score metrics. The results show that the model achieved an accuracy of 86.17% during training in Google Colab and 68.83% when deployed within the application system. This performance gap reflects real-world deployment and computational constraints rather than model failure. The proposed system provides consistent and objective rehabilitation program recommendations, thereby supporting more effective rehabilitation planning and decision-making in correctional institutions.
Keywords: correctional institutions; inmate rehabilitation programs; machine learning; random Forest; prediction system
Abstrak: Program pembinaan narapidana memiliki peran penting dalam sistem pemasyarakatan untuk membekali warga binaan dengan keterampilan serta kesiapan perilaku dalam proses reintegrasi ke masyarakat. Namun, pada banyak lembaga pemasyarakatan, penentuan program pembinaan masih bergantung pada penilaian manual yang bersifat subjektif, sehingga berpotensi menimbulkan ketidakkonsistenan dalam pengambilan keputusan. Penelitian ini mengembangkan sistem prediksi program pembinaan narapidana berbasis algoritma Random Forest guna mendukung pengambilan keputusan yang objektif dan berbasis data. Pendekatan kuantitatif diterapkan menggunakan data historis narapidana periode Januari 2023 hingga Januari 2025 sebanyak 2.023 data. Tahapan penelitian meliputi prapemrosesan data, pembagian data latih dan uji dengan rasio 80:20, pelatihan model, serta evaluasi performa menggunakan metrik akurasi, precision, recall, dan F1-score. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model mencapai akurasi sebesar 86,17% pada tahap pelatihan di Google Colab dan 68,83% saat diimplementasikan pada sistem aplikasi. Perbedaan performa tersebut mencerminkan keterbatasan lingkungan operasional, bukan kegagalan model. Secara keseluruhan, sistem yang dikembangkan mampu memberikan rekomendasi program pembinaan yang lebih objektif dan konsisten, sehingga mendukung perencanaan pembinaan yang lebih efektif.
Kata kunci: mesin pembelajaran; program pembinaan narapidana; random Forest; sistem pemasyarakatan; sistem prediksi
Abstract:This study examines the fulfillment of remission rights for drug offenders in Indonesia following the enactment of Government Regulation No. 99 of 2012, which introduced restrictive provisions inconsistent with the rehabilitative…
ilitative vision of Law No. 12 of 1995. The research problem lies in the normative contradiction between correctional laws oriented toward behavioural reform and derivative regulations that prioritise punitive measures. The study aims to evaluate the implementation of remission regulations and their alignment with principles of justice and human rights. Employing a normative legal research design, it analyses statutes, judicial decisions, doctrines, and comparative law. Findings reveal that remission has shifted from a universal right to a conditional privilege, disproportionately affecting low-level drug offenders, exacerbating prison overcrowding, and weakening legal certainty. The study concludes that policy reform is necessary through individualised assessments, restorative justice integration, independent oversight, and regulatory harmonisation to restore fairness and uphold human rights.