Abstract:This study examines the impact of Microfinance Institutions' (MFIs) performance on economic growth in Cambodia, using annual panel data from 62 MFIs for the period 2017–2023. Employing advanced econometric techniques, the…
the findings reveal nuanced relationships between key indicators of MFI performance and GDP growth. Notably, Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) show an unexpected positive relationship with GDP growth, highlighting the Cambodian microfinance sector's resilience in mitigating adverse effects through sustained economic activity. Inflation is also positively associated with GDP growth, suggesting that moderate inflation can drive economic expansion, though careful management is necessary to avoid destabilization. Conversely, the study finds a negative relationship between the number of MFIs and GDP growth, indicating potential inefficiencies from sector oversaturation. Lastly, a positive link between Return on Equity (ROE) and GDP growth underscores the importance of profitability in ensuring financial stability and economic development. The findings emphasize the need for policy measures to manage sector growth, maintain moderate inflation, and enhance MFI profitability for sustainable economic progress in Cambodia.
Keywords: Microfinance Institutions (MFIs); Cambodia; Economic Growth.
Abstract:Inflation is a fundamental measure of macroeconomic stability that negatively impacts the nation's economy and affects many other macroeconomic variables. Thus, in this study, the major objective was based on modeling and…
d forecasting inflation in Ethiopia and its components using a VAR model. The analysis was based on annual data from 1992 to 2021, encompassing 30 years. The results indicated that all five series were non-stationary at the level but stationary after their first differencing at a 5% level of significance. Johansen's cointegration tests were conducted. The results indicated the presence of at least one co-integration relationship between the variables. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was fitted to model short run and long run relationships among inflation and other macro-econometric series such as GDP growth, government expenditure, money supply, and imports, and the result indicated that the coefficient of error correction term is negative (-0.279), which indicated that the fitted VECM model continues to move toward long run equilibrium and converges. Granger causality tests were employed to explore potential causal relationships. Impulse response analysis and variance decomposition were used to determine the short-run interactions among the variables. Finally, using the fitted model, out-of-sample forecasts were produced, yielding forecasted plots and values for the endogenous variables. According to the forecasted inflation rates for the next five years, prices are projected to decrease by approximately 18.0% in 2022, 6.8% in 2023, and then increase by approximately 8.3% in 2024. Subsequently, prices are expected to decrease by approximately 2% in 2025 and 5% in 2026 over the specified time periods.
Abstract:The financial uncertainty in the results of the investment evaluation creates conditions of risk in the decision making of any strategy in the management of the industrial units. The recent crises (economic and pandemic)…
have only reinforced the need to explicitly introduce the factor of uncertainty in any new investment decision. The aim of the present paper is to develop a methodological approach contributing to the appraisal of an investment project under risk and uncertainty. Methods from statistical - econometrics, probabilistic analysis, numerical simulation methods and financial analysis are used and combined. The stochastic approach is used through the Monte Carlo simulation to appraisal the uncertainty. Finally, the implementation of probabilistic theory combined with the use of decision trees allows to estimate in a more relevant way the factor of uncertainty considering all perspectives.