Abstract:This study examines the reaction of the Indonesian capital market to the escalation of the Iran conflict in 2026 using an event study approach focusing on energy sector firms listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Market…
t reactions are measured using Average Abnormal Return (AAR) and Trading Volume Activity (TVA). The observation period includes an 11-day event window (t−5 to t+5) and a 100-day estimation period. Statistical tests employed include the Shapiro–Wilk normality test, one-sample t-test, paired sample t-test, and Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test.
The findings indicate that abnormal returns are only significant around the event date but do not differ significantly between pre- and post-event periods. In contrast, trading volume activity shows consistent and significant changes. These results suggest that geopolitical conflict information is more strongly reflected in trading behavior than in price adjustments. This study contributes to the literature by providing sector-specific evidence from an emerging market and highlighting behavioral market responses.
Abstract:The healthcare industry has historically been viewed as a non-cyclical, defensive, safe haven for investors. However, the post-pandemic period has revealed the industry's susceptibility to disruptions in global supply chains…
ains and geopolitical tensions. The present research examines the effects of Geopolitical risk (GPR) on the stock performance of 76 publicly listed healthcare companies in Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, and Singapore) during 2015-2024. According to the Caldara and Iacoviello GPR Index, this study utilizes Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) the results show that though general Geopolitical Risk and Inflation are strongly negatively impacting the stock performance, specific Geopolitical Acts (GPRA) and Threats (GPRT) are having a positive response indicating a necessity premium in which investors expect a boom in demand of medical supplies once a conflict is realized. It concludes that the healthcare industry is not a safe haven but a highly fragmented environment in which inflation poses a greater threat to companies than political instability. The study advises that investors should consider a bottom-up approach, specifically micro-resilience screening, and that corporate managers should focus on supply chain decoupling and inflation hedging to address the Resilience Gap identified in the region.
Abstract:The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of the Federal Funds Rate before and during the Covid-19 pandemic on economic stability in five developing countries in the Southeast Asian region which are members of an…
n economic and geopolitical organization, namely the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN) to see short-term relationships. and long-term during that period. The indicators of economic stability used are the benchmark interest rate for deposits, the reference interest rate for loans, the balance of payments which includes exports and imports, inflation, exchange rates, and the money supply. In this study, the method used was the quantitative method and the data obtained was secondary data sourced from International Financial Statistics (IFS) from January 2015 to December 2022 which used the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach in the Eviews 9 application. The results found indicated that in the long run, the existence of FFR volatility has a positive effect on the Deposit and Export Reference Rates. While those that have a negative effect are Loan Reference Rates, Imports, Exchange Rate Inflation, and Money Supply. In the short term, the existence of the FFR interest rate has a positive effect on the Reference Rates for Deposits, Imports, and Inflation. While those that have a negative effect are Loan Reference Rates, Exports, Exchange Rates, and Money Supply
Abstract:Infrastructure management in outermost border islands is not only a matter of physical development, but also a strategic issue related to sovereignty, community welfare, connectivity and national defence. This article examines…
amines infrastructure management on Miangas Island, one of Indonesia’s northernmost outer islands bordering the Philippines. Although Miangas already has several basic and strategic infrastructures, including roads, an airport, a port, electricity facilities, clean water sources, telecommunications, health facilities and security infrastructure, these assets have not yet functioned as an integrated and reliable system. The main problem is therefore not the absence of infrastructure, but the gap between physical availability and functional performance. This study uses a qualitative descriptive-analytical approach based on field observation, semi-structured interviews and document review. Data were analysed using the Miles and Huberman model, supported by STEEP+M and SWOT analysis. The findings show that infrastructure management in Miangas is influenced by three main indicators: infrastructure availability and quality, connectivity and accessibility, and infrastructure sustainability. Internally, Miangas has strengths in its strategic geography, existing infrastructure assets, state institutional presence, social cohesion and strong national identity. However, these strengths are constrained by weak service quality, limited maintenance, unstable connectivity, a fragile local economy and inadequate maritime surveillance. Externally, Miangas benefits from national legal support, strategic policy status and Indonesia–Philippines cooperation, but faces threats from cross-border dependence, illegal fishing, border violations, environmental pressure and geopolitical sensitivity. The SWOT analysis places Miangas in the WO quadrant, meaning that external opportunities should first be used to overcome internal weaknesses. This article proposes the Civil-Military Corridor Resilience Model as an integrated framework that connects public services, logistics, energy, local markets, maritime security and territorial defence in one border resilience system.
Abstract:This study analyzes OPPO's global expansion strategy through the optimization of its technology supply chain within the framework of the Global Value Chain (GVC). The smartphone industry has experienced rapid growth in recent…
ecent decades, with increasingly fierce competition among leading manufacturers. OPPO, a Chinese technology company founded in 2004 and part of BBK Electronics Corporation, has demonstrated significant competitiveness in the global market despite facing challenges in maintaining its market share from 2021 to 2024. This study uses a descriptive qualitative methodology, analyzing primary data from OPPO's official documents and secondary data from industry reports and academic literature. Findings show that OPPO implements production sharing in strategic geographic locations, with design and development centralized in China and manufacturing spread across countries that offer labor or infrastructure advantages. The study shows that OPPO's global expansion follows the Uppsala Model of internationalization, starting with culturally and geographically close markets such as Southeast Asia before expanding to more distant regions. Through technology-based supply chain optimization, digital integration, and the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI)-based coordination systems, OPPO has developed the ability to manage complex global networks while overcoming geopolitical challenges and supply chain disruptions. This research contributes to understanding how technology companies from developing countries leverage the Global Value Chain to enhance international competitiveness, providing insights into the relationship between supply chain strategy and the success of global expansion in the highly competitive smartphone industry.
Abstract:This study aims to analyze the differences in the financial performance of PT MAP Boga Adiperkasa Tbk (MAPB) before and after the consumer boycott campaign in the 2022–2024 period. The boycott campaign triggered by global…
bal geopolitical issues has an impact on the decline of the company's social legitimacy, thus affecting profitability and financial stability. The research method uses a descriptive quantitative approach through the analysis of annual financial statements processed using profitability ratios. The results show a significant downward trend in the entire profitability ratio from 2022 to 2024. In 2022, the entire ratio was in a positive condition, but declined sharply in 2023 and turned negative in 2024; NPM from 4.26% to −4.53%, ROA from 5.67% to −4.93%, ROE from 12.45% to −9.45%, and ROI from 8.37% to −4.87%. These findings indicate that boycott campaigns have a significant effect on declining profitability and show the loss of corporate social legitimacy in the eyes of the public according to the perspective of legitimacy theory.