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Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in Ethiopia Using Multivariate Time Series Analysis

Ali, Sedik
Abstract: Inflation is a fundamental measure of macroeconomic stability that negatively impacts the nation's economy and affects many other macroeconomic variables. Thus, in this study, the major objective was based on modeling and… d forecasting inflation in Ethiopia and its components using a VAR model. The analysis was based on annual data from 1992 to 2021, encompassing 30 years. The results indicated that all five series were non-stationary at the level but stationary after their first differencing at a 5% level of significance. Johansen's cointegration tests were conducted. The results indicated the presence of at least one co-integration relationship between the variables. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was fitted to model short run and long run relationships among inflation and other macro-econometric series such as GDP growth, government expenditure, money supply, and imports, and the result indicated that the coefficient of error correction term is negative (-0.279), which indicated that the fitted VECM model continues to move toward long run equilibrium and converges. Granger causality tests were employed to explore potential causal relationships. Impulse response analysis and variance decomposition were used to determine the short-run interactions among the variables. Finally, using the fitted model, out-of-sample forecasts were produced, yielding forecasted plots and values for the endogenous variables. According to the forecasted inflation rates for the next five years, prices are projected to decrease by approximately 18.0% in 2022, 6.8% in 2023, and then increase by approximately 8.3% in 2024. Subsequently, prices are expected to decrease by approximately 2% in 2025 and 5% in 2026 over the specified time periods.

Analysis of The Competitiveness of Indonesian Rubber Exports in The Market International

Ulfah, Maulida, Samsir, Andi, Alam, Syamsu
Abstract: The object of this study is to know the competitiveness of Indonesian rubber and articles  thereof (HS 40) export in international market, also the rivals (China and Thailand) by using Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA)… A) to analyze the comparative advantage and Export Product Dynamic (EPD) to analyze the competitive advantage. The result shows that Indonesia has a comparative advantage and specializes in rubber and articles  thereof (HS 40) export above the average of countries’ based on RCA value, but this  commodity is not competitive in capturing the international market based on EPD value.  This study also finds the weakness of the RCA method that has been unable to identify the relative productivity (comparative advantage) of country. We underlined that RCA valuein this study is not absolutely shows the strength/weakness of the countries.

The Influence of Work-Life Balance and Motivation on Employee Performance Across All Districts in The Island of Sebatik

Octhaniaz, Cynthia, Hamzah, Djabir, Hendragunawan
Abstract: The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence of work-life balance on employee performance The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence of work-life balance on employee performance with motivation as a moderator.… a moderator. The study aims to determine and analyze whether motivation plays a role in improving employee performance across all districts in the island of Sebatik, as well as to determine and analyze whether motivation moderates the relationship between work-life balance and employee performance in all districts in the island of Sebatik. The research method used in this study is quantitative research. The population in this study consists of all Civil Servants in all districts on the island of Sebatik, totaling 110 employees. The sampling method used is census technique, which includes all 110 elements being investigated. Therefore, it analyzes all objects, all indicators, all events, and incidents. The data used in this study is primary data, collected through the distribution of questionnaires. The data analysis technique used in this study is quantitative data analysis using statistical methods. The statistical method used is Partial Least Square (PLS). The research findings indicate that there is a significant positive influence of motivation on improving employee performance across all districts in the island of Sebatik. However, motivation does not moderate the relationship between work-life balance and employee performance in all districts on the island of Sebatik. Therefore, motivation is not a moderating variable in this study. This means that motivation cannot strengthen or weaken the relationship between work-life balance and employee performance.

Willingness to pay for use of water source for domestic consumption in Rangomali Village, Wolo District, Kolaka District

Alfarabi, Muh., Razak, Rahman, Sabir
Abstract: Water is a very important natural resource for help to survive. Water perpendicularoma on providing has impacts. Unwise overuse of water resources you are horrified can jeopardize their sustainability. The objective of this… his study is to estimate the economic value of spring water utilization in Rangomari village. The method used is Willingness to Pay (WTP) Analysis using Conditional Valuation Method (CVM). As a result, the average I WTP is IDR 5,788.46 per month and the total IWTP is IDR 5,788.46 per month. 1,724,961.54 per month. The annual economic value of this urinary tract in Rangomali village is IDR 20,699,538.5. Governments are expected to implement payment of environmental services for water use and modernization of source management. 

The Influence of Implementating Performance Allowence Policies and Leadership On Employee Performance at RSUD Haji Makassar

Ikram M, Muhaidir, Haerani, Sitti, Ismail, Muhammad
Abstract: The primary objective of this study is to investigate the impact of the implementation of performance allowance policies and leadership on employee performance within the context of Haji Makassar General Hospital. The quantitative… antitative research methodology aims to elucidate the causal relationship between the variables under examination. The population under investigation consisted of 67 employees of Haji Makassar General Hospital, and the entire population was included as the sample for this study. The data collection techniques included questionnaires, documentation analysis, interviews, and an extensive literature review. The data analysis methodology contained multiple regression analysis and hypothesis testing in partial and simultaneous manners. The research findings indicate that the variables of performance allowance policies and leadership engagement exhibit a positive and significant influence on employee performance at Haji Makassar General Hospital. In other words, the research hypothesi.

Analysis of The Influence of Organizational Commitment and Work Discipline on Employee Performance with Job Satisfaction as An Intervening Variable

Aliyah, A.Nabilah, Sumardi, Reni, Andi
Abstract: The primary objective of this research is to examine and assess the impact of work dicipline and organizational commitment on employee performance. In an endeavor to enhance individual and group employee performance, specific… cific standards of responsibility have been instituted for each individual in the execution of their duties. Typically, employees exhibiting a high level of competence in their roles suggest that their success in the work environment has been optimized. Consequently, this study was conducted to elucidate the interrelations between work motivation, job satisfaction, organizational commitment, and employee performance within the context of the Regional Drinking Water Company of Makassar City (PDAM Makassar City).The research involved the collection of data from 107 employees of the Makassar City Regional Drinking Water Company to empirically test the proposed research model, utilizing WarpPLS 7.0 modeling software. The findings of the study reveal that there is a statistically significant influence of organizational commitment and work discipline, both individually and collectively, on job satisfaction and employee performance. Additionally, a discernible impact of job satisfaction on employee performance was identified, and an indirect influence of organizational commitment and work discipline variables on performance was observed through their impact on job satisfaction

Analysis of Stock Portfolio Performance Using The Jensen Method

Musa, Chalid Imran, Anwar
Abstract: Measuring portfolio performance cannot only be seen from the returns, but also must pay attention to the risks that investors will bear. Measuring the performance of a stock portfolio can be facilitated by using a proxy,… namely LQ 45 shares, which are liquid stocks with high market capitalization, have high trading frequency, have good growth prospects and financial conditions, are not volatile and have been objectively selected by the IDX and are stocks. which is safe to own because the fundamental performance of these stocks is good, so that from a risk perspective the LQ 45 stock group has the lowest risk compared to other stocks. The research objective was to determine portfolio performance assessment using the Jensen method, a case study of the LQ45 index on the Indonesian stock exchange for the 2019-2022 period. The population in this study is LQ45 index shares on the Indonesian stock exchange for the 2019-2022 period based on a purposive sampling technique. Data collection is documentation and literature study. The data analysis that will be used in this study is by using the Microsoft Excel 2010 application program to form an optimal portfolio using the Single index model and to assess the performance of a stock portfolio using the Jensen index method. the results of portfolio performance analysis of Jensen's Alpha LQ45 index optimal stocks and obtaining an average RVOR value of 0.0207 or 2.07%.

Sistem Penghitungan Jumlah Kendaraan Pada Area Parkir Menggunakan Background Subtraction Dan OpenCV

Nando Juliansyah, Wendi Saputra, Febri Dristyan
Abstract: Masalah pengelolaan parkir di Politeknik Jambi sering menyebabkan ketidakefisienan akibat sistem penghitungan manual yang rentan human error. Penelitian ini bertujuan merancang sistem penghitungan kendaraan otomatis berbasis… asis pengolahan citra digital. Metode yang digunakan adalah Background Subtraction dengan algoritma MOG2 dan OpenCV menggunakan video kamera smartphone. Sistem mengintegrasikan proses preprocessing citra, operasi morfologi, dan Euclidean Distance Tracker untuk melacak serta menghitung kendaraan secara real-time. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan sistem mampu membedakan kendaraan yang bergerak dengan objek statis secara akurat melalui Virtual Counting Line. Dengan beban komputasi yang ringan dan biaya rendah, sistem ini efektif menjadi solusi otomatisasi manajemen parkir di lingkungan kampus. Parking management issues at Politeknik Jambi often lead to inefficiencies due to manual counting systems prone to human error. This study aims to design an automatic vehicle counting system based on digital image processing. The method utilizes Background Subtraction with the MOG2 algorithm and OpenCV using smartphone video input. The system integrates image preprocessing, morphological operations, and Euclidean Distance Tracker to track and count vehicles in real-time. The results demonstrate that the system can accurately distinguish between moving vehicles and static objects via a Virtual Counting Line. With low computational requirements and cost-effectiveness, this system offers an efficient automation solution for campus parking management.

MENINGKATKAN KEMAMPUAN VISUAL PERSEPTUAL ANAK USIA 5-6 TAHUN MELALUI PEMBELAJARAN BERBASIS SMARTBOARD DI TK SARANTAU SASURAMBI

Sikma, Monica, Rio Tri Putra, Sri Suhartika, Ade Marlia
Abstract: Visual perceptual ability is one of the important aspects of cognitive development in early childhood. This ability is related to children’s capacity to recognize, differentiate, interpret, and understand information received… eceived through vision. It includes the recognition of shapes, colors, sizes, patterns, and visual relationships, which are essential for children’s learning readiness. This study aims to improve the visual perceptual abilities of children aged 5–6 years at TK Sarantau Sasurambi through smartboard-based learning. The research employed a Classroom Action Research (CAR) method conducted in several cycles, namely planning, action, observation, and reflection. The research subjects were children aged 5–6 years. The research instruments included observation sheets of visual perceptual abilities (visual discrimination, visual memory, matching, sequencing, spatial relations, and eye–hand coordination), observation sheets on the use of the smartboard, and field notes. The results showed an improvement in visual perceptual abilities from the pre-cycle to Cycle I and Cycle II. Children’s mastery in the pre-cycle reached only 45%, increased to 65% in Cycle I, and reached 88% in Cycle II. The use of smartboards proved effective as it offers interactive and engaging visual learning experiences and facilitates children’s direct manipulation of objects. Therefore, smartboard-based learning is highly effective in improving the visual perceptual abilities of children aged 5–6 years.

PROGRAM KEMITRAAN MASYARAKAT (PKM) KLUSTER 2 PETERNAK AYAM RAS PETELUR SKALA USAHA MIKRO DAN USAHA KECIL DI KOTA TOMOHON TENTANG PENERAPAN BIOSEKURITI PADA USAHA PETERNAKAN UNGGAS

Tangkere, Evacuree S., Podung, Albert J., Tangkere, Imelda A., Sompie, Florencia N., Telleng, Malcky M.
Abstract: ABSTRACT The objective of community partnership program cluster 2 (CPP-C2) is to provide micro and small-scale layer chicken farmers in Tomohon city with business management procedures based on “biosecurity”.  Problems faced… blems faced by partners, both farm owners and farm workers: 1) lack of knowledge and understanding of the concept and application of biosecurity  2) lack of sanitation application, which increases the risk of diseases emerging and spreading 3) not yet aware that the use of open house system, unfenced farms and no procedures for entering the farm area, are not in accordance with the principles of biosecurity system. The activity was carried out in stages: survey, socialization on the concept and implementation of the 3-zone biosecurity system, provision of disinfectants and examples of regulation for laying hen farming as well as evaluation. The evaluation results show that during the extension activity, out of 8 participants only 2 were actively asking questions, and it turned out they were the farm owners, while the farm workers were passive.  It was found after the outreach activity, that the farm owners or farm workers who were partners had not been implemented the 3-zone biosecurity system, therefore outreach activities regarding biosecurity on poultry farm still need to be provided again to them, so that the concept and application of biosecurity will be truly understood and they would be willing to do so. However, at least 2 farms have prepared signboards with rules for entering the farm area.  The occurrence of outbreaks and pandemics should be a lesson-learned that biosecurity measures are highly relevant to the saying “it is better to prevent than cure”. If, chicken remain healthy, they produce high-quality and safe products, and so, farmers can minimize health costs and maximize profits, even enabling farms owner to expand their businesses scale.  In conclusion, this activity has not been given a significant impact on partner’s farm management because all partners have not been implemented the 3-zone biosecurity system, and it would be better if, all farm owners as decision makers to participate in this kind of activity, as well as the need for synergy between relevant agencies in the livestock sector in Tomohon city and academics with poultry farming business practitioners in an effort to maintain livestock health, poultry communities and maintain food security.