Abstract:This study was motivated by fluctuations in the stock prices of mining sector companies listed in the IDX30 index during 2021–2024, Indonesia’s mineral downstreaming policy, and inconsistencies in previous research findings.…
indings. This study aimed to analyze the effects of interest rates and financial performance, as measured by the debt-to-equity ratio (DER) and earnings per share (EPS), on the stock prices of IDX30 mining companies and to examine the moderating role of inflation. The population comprised all mining sector companies listed in the IDX30 index during the year 2021–2024, while the sample was selected using purposive sampling. This study employed a quantitative explanatory approach and panel data regression with Moderated Regression Analysis. The results showed that interest rates had a negative and significant effect on stock prices, whereas EPS had a positive and significant effect. DER did not significantly affect stock prices. Furthermore, inflation did not moderate the effects of interest rates, DER, or EPS on stock prices. These findings imply that mining companies should maintain sustainable profitability and consider interest rate dynamics in financial decision-making. Investors should also consider macroeconomic conditions and company fundamentals when formulating investment strategies.
Abstract:This study examines the effect of inflation, interest rates (BI7DRR), and exchange rates (USD/IDR) on stock returns of PT Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk., with the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) as an intervening variable.…
e. Using a quantitative explanatory research design, monthly secondary data spanning January 2016 to December 2025 (120 observations) were analysed using Pearson correlation and two-stage path analysis (OLS regression). Results indicate that inflation and exchange rates significantly influence IHSG, while the BI Rate does not. However, neither macroeconomic variables nor IHSG significantly affect Telkom's stock returns either directly or indirectly. The model explains only 2.7% of the variation in stock returns, suggesting that company-specific and sectoral factors dominate return determination. These findings imply that IHSG does not serve as an effective mediating channel between macroeconomic conditions and individual stock returns for Telkom. Investors in the telecommunications sector should prioritise fundamental and sectoral analysis over macroeconomic indicators when making portfolio decisions
Abstract:This research aims to analyze the influence of internal and external bank factors which include Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR), Non-Performing Loans (NPL), interest rates, inflation and economic…
c growth on Return on Assets (ROA) in conventional banking in Indonesia. This research uses quantitative methods with a causality approach. The data used is secondary data obtained from bank financial reports and official publications related to the research period. The analysis technique used is panel data regression using model selection tests, classical assumption tests, and hypothesis tests. The research results show that all independent variables simultaneously influence ROA. Partially, NPL has a significant negative effect on ROA, while other variables such as CAR, LDR, interest rates, inflation and economic growth show varying effects on bank profitability. This research concludes that credit risk is the dominant factor influencing banking financial performance.
Abstract:The healthcare industry has historically been viewed as a non-cyclical, defensive, safe haven for investors. However, the post-pandemic period has revealed the industry's susceptibility to disruptions in global supply chains…
ains and geopolitical tensions. The present research examines the effects of Geopolitical risk (GPR) on the stock performance of 76 publicly listed healthcare companies in Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, and Singapore) during 2015-2024. According to the Caldara and Iacoviello GPR Index, this study utilizes Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) the results show that though general Geopolitical Risk and Inflation are strongly negatively impacting the stock performance, specific Geopolitical Acts (GPRA) and Threats (GPRT) are having a positive response indicating a necessity premium in which investors expect a boom in demand of medical supplies once a conflict is realized. It concludes that the healthcare industry is not a safe haven but a highly fragmented environment in which inflation poses a greater threat to companies than political instability. The study advises that investors should consider a bottom-up approach, specifically micro-resilience screening, and that corporate managers should focus on supply chain decoupling and inflation hedging to address the Resilience Gap identified in the region.
Abstract:This study aims to analyze the interpretations, behaviors, and preferences of gold investment among civil servants (PNS) of the South Sulawesi Provincial Government in facing economic volatility and inflation. Using a descriptive…
scriptive qualitative method with a case study approach, this study collected data through in-depth interviews with 13 informants consisting of active civil servants, retirees, and financial practitioners, supported by secondary data analysis. The results show that PNS interpretations of gold are multidimensional, namely as an effective life buffer and hedge against inflation, as well as an instrument for fulfilling cultural obligations (uang panai' and siri'). This study found a transformation in investment behavior from gold jewelry to gold bars and digital savings, driven by mental accounting mechanisms through payroll deduction systems to discipline spending. In conclusion, the local culture of Bugis-Makassar interacts dynamically with modern financial literacy, creating a hybrid investment pattern supported by sharia compliance and the integration of regional banking technology.
Abstract:Banks are defined as financial intermediaries that borrow money from surplus spending units and lend to deficit spending units. During this process, they carry out four basic services: liquidity intermediation,…
diation, denomination intermediation, risk intermediation, and maturity intermediation. The nature of this intermediation makes banks face many risks, including liquidity risk, operational risk, credit risk, interest rate risk and foreign exchange risk. In this study we attempt to identified the determinants of bank risk in Tunisian context . We measured bank risk with (RWTA. NPL and Zscore). We used a sample of 11 banks quoted in financial market of Tunis for the period ( 2014-2023). By estimation of 3 models with the technique of panel data ,we found that liquidity ; total credit ; return on equity ; size ; capital ; economic growth and inflation have a significant effect on bank risk
Abstract:This study examines the impact of Microfinance Institutions' (MFIs) performance on economic growth in Cambodia, using annual panel data from 62 MFIs for the period 2017–2023. Employing advanced econometric techniques, the…
the findings reveal nuanced relationships between key indicators of MFI performance and GDP growth. Notably, Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) show an unexpected positive relationship with GDP growth, highlighting the Cambodian microfinance sector's resilience in mitigating adverse effects through sustained economic activity. Inflation is also positively associated with GDP growth, suggesting that moderate inflation can drive economic expansion, though careful management is necessary to avoid destabilization. Conversely, the study finds a negative relationship between the number of MFIs and GDP growth, indicating potential inefficiencies from sector oversaturation. Lastly, a positive link between Return on Equity (ROE) and GDP growth underscores the importance of profitability in ensuring financial stability and economic development. The findings emphasize the need for policy measures to manage sector growth, maintain moderate inflation, and enhance MFI profitability for sustainable economic progress in Cambodia.
Keywords: Microfinance Institutions (MFIs); Cambodia; Economic Growth.
Abstract:Inflation is a fundamental measure of macroeconomic stability that negatively impacts the nation's economy and affects many other macroeconomic variables. Thus, in this study, the major objective was based on modeling and…
d forecasting inflation in Ethiopia and its components using a VAR model. The analysis was based on annual data from 1992 to 2021, encompassing 30 years. The results indicated that all five series were non-stationary at the level but stationary after their first differencing at a 5% level of significance. Johansen's cointegration tests were conducted. The results indicated the presence of at least one co-integration relationship between the variables. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was fitted to model short run and long run relationships among inflation and other macro-econometric series such as GDP growth, government expenditure, money supply, and imports, and the result indicated that the coefficient of error correction term is negative (-0.279), which indicated that the fitted VECM model continues to move toward long run equilibrium and converges. Granger causality tests were employed to explore potential causal relationships. Impulse response analysis and variance decomposition were used to determine the short-run interactions among the variables. Finally, using the fitted model, out-of-sample forecasts were produced, yielding forecasted plots and values for the endogenous variables. According to the forecasted inflation rates for the next five years, prices are projected to decrease by approximately 18.0% in 2022, 6.8% in 2023, and then increase by approximately 8.3% in 2024. Subsequently, prices are expected to decrease by approximately 2% in 2025 and 5% in 2026 over the specified time periods.
Abstract:This study examines the factors that affect the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar in Indonesia between 2013-2022. The observed factors include interest rates, inflation, and money supply. Annual data was…
used from legitimate sources such as Bank Indonesia and the Central Bureau of Statistics. The results show that interest rates have a significant influence on the rupiah exchange rate, with an increase in interest rates causing a depreciation of the rupiah against the US dollar. Inflation has no significant effect on the exchange rate, although high inflation can affect purchasing power and confidence in the local currency. Money supply also has a significant effect, where an increase tends to cause rupiah depreciation. An increase in money supply causes inflation and decreases purchasing power, thus decreasing the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar
Abstract:Money plays a strategic role in economics and was often initially interpreted as a widely accepted means of payment, especially due to its primary function as a medium of transaction. The purpose of this study is to analyze…
yze the effects of interest rates, economic growth and inflation on the money supply. The variables observed in this study are the floating money in circulation (M1) as the dependent variable and interest rates, economic growth and inflation as the independent variables. The study uses secondary data from his 2013 to his 2022 from the Central Bureau of Statistics. This study uses multiple regression analysis with the SPSS program. The results of this study demonstrate that the independent variables (interest rates, GDP, and inflation) simultaneously affect the dependent variable (money supply). On the other hand, only interest rate variables affect the money supply, while GDP and inflation variables do not.