Abstract:Abstract: This research will discuss predictions of demand for robes at the Fashion Gallery. The problem that occurs is that there is often a buildup in the number of robes provided in shops, thereby increasing additional…
l expenses, such as storage costs and demand costs. On the other hand, if there is too little stock of robes, it will result in losses because potential buyers do not get the items they need. In this case, the forecasting system will be used as a tool to solve the problem of robe accumulation. The WMA method prioritizes the most recent data points while smoothing out fluctuations. The advantage of this method is increased responsiveness to recent changes in demand patterns, contributing to more accurate forecasts by considering current information more prominently than historical data. By implementing the WMA method, it is hoped that the accumulation of robes can be avoided. From the results of prediction calculations in January 2024, it is predicted that there will be 143 adult robes, with a MAD of 7.685185, MSE 74.79938 and MAPE 5%. For small children's robes, it is predicted that there will be 56 shirts, with MAD of 8.388889, MSE of 91.16358 and MAPE of 12%. It can be concluded that the WMA method can make it easier for Fashion Gallery to predict demand for adult and children's robes in the following month.
Keywords: forecasting; robe request; weighted moving average
Abstrak: Dalam penelitian ini akan membahas prediksi permintaan baju gamis pada Fashion Gallery. Permasalahan yang terjadi sering terjadinya penumpukan pada jumlah baju gamis yang disediakan pada toko, sehingga meningkatkan beban tambahan, seperti biaya penyimpanan dan biaya permintaan. Sebaliknya, apabila stok gamis yang terlalu sedikit, mengakibatkan kerugian yang disebabkan karena calon pembeli tidak mendapatkan barang yang dibutuhkan. Dalam hal ini sistem forecasting akan digunakan sebagai alat bantu dalam menyelesaikan permasalahan penumpukan baju gamis. Metode WMA, lebih mementingkan titik data terkini sambil memperlancar fluktuasi. Kelebihan metode ini meningkatkan daya tanggap terhadap perubahan pola permintaan terkini, berkontribusi pada perkiraan yang lebih akurat dengan mempertimbangkan informasi terkini secara lebih menonjol dibandingkan data historis. Dengan diterapkannya metode WMA, diharapkan dapat menghindari terjadinya penumpukan baju gamis. Dari hasil perhitungan prediksi pada bulan Januari 2024, untuk baju gamis dewasa diprediksi sebanyak 143 baju, dengan MAD sebesar 7.685185, MSE 74.79938 dan MAPE 5%. Untuk baju gamis anak kecil diprediksi sebanyak 56 baju, dengan MAD sebesar 8.388889, MSE 91.16358 dan MAPE sebesar 12%. Dapat disimpulkan bahwa metode WMA dapat memudahkan Fashion Gallery dalam meramalkan permintaan baju gamis dewasa dan anak-anak pada bulan berikutnya.
Kata Kunci: forecasting; permintaan baju gamis; weighted moving average
Abstract:Abstract: Guntur Store is located on Jl. Sisingamangaraja, Kisaran, Asahan Regency. It focuses on selling basic needs, but the store faces a problem in its sales. The main issue encountered is the uncertainty in forecasting…
ing the stock of basic needs, which can lead to imbalance between supply and demand, due to Guntur Store still relying on manual ledger entries for reporting and inputting data into Microsoft Excel. This research aims to predict the demand for basic needs at Guntur Store using the Single Exponential Smoothing Method and to enhance prediction accuracy through the application of time series analysis techniques on historical sales data. The Single Exponential Smoothing Method will be employed to model and forecast patterns of demand for staple goods. The findings of this research can provide insights into future demand for goods, thereby improving supply chain optimization and ensuring adequate stock levels to effectively meet customer demands. The conclusion of this study is to obtain more accurate estimates in anticipating the evolving data patterns of basic needs at Guntur Store, thus providing valuable information for the store and policymakers involved in the distribution of basic needs.
Keywords: basic food needs; forecasting; single exponential smoothing
Abstrak : Toko Guntur terletak di Jl. Sisingamangaraja, Kisaran, Kabupaten Asahan. Berfokus pada penjualan kebutuhan sembako, namun dalam penjualan toko tersebut mengalami sebuah permasalahan. Permasalahan utama yang dihadapi adalah ketidakpastian dalam meramalkan kebutuhan stok Sembako yang dapat mengakibatkan ketidakseimbangan antara pasokan dan permintaan, dikarenkan Toko Guntur masih menggunakan buku besar dalam pembuatan laporan dan di input ke dalam microsoft excel. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memprediksi permintaan Sembako di Toko Guntur menggunakan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing serta meningkatkan akurasi prediksi melalui penerapan teknik analisis deret waktu terhadap data penjualan historis. Metode Single Exponential Smoothing akan digunakan untuk memodelkan dan memprediksi pola permintaan barang pokok. Hasil penelitian ini dapat memberikan jumlah permintaan barang di masa mendatang sehingga optimalisasi rantai pasok menjadi g lebih baik dan memastikan tingkat stok yang memadai untuk memenuhi permintaan pelanggan secara efektif. Kesimpulan penelitian ini untuk mendapatkan perkiraan yang lebih akurat dalam mengantisipasi pola data yang sedang berkembang kebutuhan sembako pada Toko Guntur sehingga menghasilkan informasi yang akurat dapat menjadi sumber informasi berharga bagi Toko Guntur, dan pembuat kebijakan yang terlibat dalam distribusi Sembako.
Kata Kunci: kebutuhan sembako; single exponential smoothing; peramalan
Abstract:This study critically examines the constitutionality of Indonesia’s presidential candidacy threshold under Article 222 of Law No. 7 of 2017 in relation to the principle of popular sovereignty in Article 1(2) of the 1945…
5 Constitution. The threshold requiring a party or coalition to hold 20% of DPR seats or 25% of the popular vote has been controversial for limiting voter choice and reinforcing oligarchic dominance. Using a normative legal research method, the study applies doctrinal interpretation through grammatical, systematic, historical, and teleological approaches to evaluate whether the threshold is consistent with constitutional democracy. The analysis identifies a disconnect between the legislative rule and the constitutional concept of sovereignty residing with the people, informed by theories of democracy, sovereignty, and progressive legal thought. While procedurally legitimate, the threshold lacks substantive constitutional validity because of its exclusionary impact on political participation. The study proposes four reform options: repeal, proportional adjustment, judicial reinterpretation, and constitutional amendment. These reforms would realign electoral rules with democratic principles and restore voters’ political agency. A doctrinal reinterpretation model is offered, framing the threshold as a regulatory instrument rather than a rigid barrier, advocating a legal structure that promotes inclusivity and reflects the people’s general will.
Abstract:Within the context of the Indonesian legal system, this study investigates the crucial function that judicial review plays in ensuring that administrative procedures are lawful and that justice is served. This study sheds…
s light on the techniques, processes, and issues that are involved with judicial review in relation to administrative acts. It does so by conducting a comprehensive analysis of judicial decisions, legal precedents, and legislative frameworks. The paper provides an in-depth analysis of the development of judicial review in Indonesia, following its historical progression and analysing the current state of affairs. Through an in-depth analysis of administrative decisions, it examines the role that the court plays in ensuring that administrative procedures are valid, preserving a system of checks and balances, and protecting fundamental rights. The impact of judicial review on administrative institutions and the legal landscape is also investigated in this study. Particular attention is paid to the role that judicial review plays in promoting openness, accountability, and adherence to the rule of law for administrations. The purpose of this research is to give useful insights into the efficient operation of Indonesia's administrative governance and the improvement of justice in administrative procedures. This is accomplished by casting light on the junction between judicial review and administrative law.
Abstract:culture through the exploration of stories and narratives, as well as analyze the factors that influence the promotion of tourism destinations in this region. The research method used is qualitative with the main source…
of data coming from literature studies, mainly focusing on folklore, historical narratives, and Timor Leste's cultural richness. The introduction of the research covered the context of tourism in Timor Leste, highlighting the challenges in promoting tourism destinations and the problems faced. An in-depth literature search was then conducted to formulate the research problems, namely constraints in tourism promotion and the role of stories and narratives in the context of destination promotion. In the exploration of cultural uniqueness, the findings show that local mythology, oral traditions and community values play an important role in shaping Timor Leste's cultural identity. The analysis of factors influencing destination promotion involved an evaluation of marketing, tourism infrastructure, media, technology and sustainability aspects. The results of this study provide an in-depth insight into Timor Leste's local wisdom and tourism potential. The findings are expected to serve as a basis for the development of more effective promotional strategies, integrating cultural uniqueness in stories and narratives as a foundation for increasing the attractiveness of this tourism destination in the eyes of global travelers
Abstract:The demand for electrical energy continues to rise with the progression of time. This growth must be matched by a reliable and cost-effective supply of electricity, requiring power systems that are both dependable and economical.…
onomical. Since the amount of electricity consumed by users cannot be precisely predicted, balancing generation with consumption necessitates accurate electrical load forecasting. This study focuses on load forecasting using the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) method. The forecast developed targets daily peak loads, which fall under short-term load forecasting. The data used for this forecasting consists of historical daily peak loads from January 1, 2017, to June 9, 2022. The forecasting process involves parameters such as radius, squash factor, accept ratio, reject ratio, and epoch. The forecast accuracy is evaluated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) metric. The results are then compared with PLN’s load forecasting, which employs the load coefficient method. The ANFIS-based forecasting achieved a MAPE of 1.879%, using networks Jaringan_24 and Jaringan_25. This MAPE value is slightly lower than PLN’s load forecasting MAPE of 1.917%, indicating better accuracy by the ANFIS method.
Abstract:The manufacturing sector in Indonesia, particularly within the aluminum fabrication and extrusion industry, is currently navigating a period of intense structural transition. Historically characterized by a focus on physical…
ical output and technical specifications, enterprises are now increasingly compelled to adopt a service-dominant logic to maintain competitive viability. This research report investigates the strategic implementation of human resource development programs at NJS Alumunium, focusing on the dual-pathway integration of technical competence (hard skills) and interpersonal proficiencies (soft skills). Utilizing the SERVQUAL framework as a primary evaluative tool, the analysis explores how specific technical abilities, such as CNC machining, precision welding, and CAD design, intersect with soft skills like emotional intelligence, communication, and proactive problem-solving to drive customer satisfaction. The study synthesizes data from contemporary Indonesian industrial policies, including "Making Indonesia 4.0," and academic frameworks such as Workplace Learning (WPL) and Total Quality Management (TQM). Findings indicate that while technical mastery is a prerequisite for entry into the high-end aluminum market, soft skills serve as the critical differentiator in fostering customer loyalty and bridging the gap between expectation and perception. The report further details the role of management information systems, the impact of local cultural paternalism in leadership, and the emergence of green capabilities as essential components of a modern competency strategy. The proposed developmental model advocates for a continuous, mentored, and digitally-enabled training ecosystem that aligns organizational capabilities with the sophisticated demands of both domestic and international consumers.
Abstract:This study aims to describe, identify, and analyze in depth the manifestation of ethos, pathos, and logos in Ustaz Abdul Somad's lecture on the importance of maintaining morals. The research method applied is a qualitative…
ve approach with a descriptive type to systematically outline linguistic facts and communication strategies. The data collection process relies on literature review techniques to gather trusted supporting scientific literature. Data reduction, data presentation, and conclusion drawing are utilized as analytical stages to dissect the entire lecture recording based on Aristotle's rhetorical triangle theory. The results show that the element of ethos or credibility is built through the adjustment of local sarong clothing, a humble attitude toward elders, respectful etiquette toward Madurese kiai, and authoritative hadith references. The element of pathos or emotional appeal is manifested through dramatic narratives of a mother's struggle in giving birth, the physical sacrifice of a father in the orchard, the story of his own mother's passing, and the analogy of an old Quranic mushaf for the elderly to arouse the congregation's pity and regret. The element of logos or logical argument is proven through the syllogism of moral priority over material wealth, the law of direct causal retribution for rebellious children, and textual historical proof regarding the inclusivity of the prophet's social relations with non-Muslims. The synchronization of these three rhetorical elements successfully packages weighty morality material into a logical yet deeply touching spiritual presentation for the congregation.
Abstract:In discourse, speech is not only considered as a linguistic phenomenon but also as a means to maintain or change power relations in society. One of the clearest examples of the use of speech in discourse to change social…
change occurred in The Black Civil Rights Movement from 1955 to 1968 in the United States. Based on the interest in studying Malcolm X's speech further, the thesis writer decided to analyze Malcolm X's speech at the Oxford Union Debate using Fairclough's Critical Discourse Analysis framework with a qualitative method that will focus on linguistic issues as part of social and humanitarian issues. The results of this study showed deconstruction result of Malcolm X's speech text by analyzing various linguistic features from the dimensions of text practice (including positive and negative lexical items, key terms of ideology and belief, modality, and rhetorical devices), discursive practice (including intertextuality and shared knowledge), and sociocultural (including formality and personal pronouns), then continued with a discussion of the relationship between discourse, power, and ideology and the role of Malcolm X's speech in the historical context at that time. It can be concluded that Malcolm X's speech highlights his advocacy for revolutionary justice and self-defense for oppressed black people. He also challenged the power structures of his time, opposing segregation and exposing the hypocrisy of the American and Western governments with white supremacy and colonialism behind the mask of democracy.
Abstract:This study aims to analyze the tourism potential and marketing strategies in Bejijong Village, a village with a rich history and culture from the Majapahit Kingdom era located in Mojokerto Regency, East Java Province. This…
is study explores how village managers conduct managerial and marketing activities to attract tourists and promote local products. The research method involves a SWOT analysis to evaluate the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats in the Marketing Mix’s 7P approach implemented by the village. The results of the study indicate that Bejijong Village has several significant advantages, including historical heritage such as Brahu Temple, Petilasan Siti Inggil, and Maha Vihara Majapahit, as well as local products such as smoked salted eggs, lemon juice, pukis lumer (melting) bertoping, tahu lontong (compress rice), and Cempaka batik handicrafts and wayang kulit. However, the challenges faced include less than optimal website management, lack of effective digital marketing strategies, and entrance fees that may be insufficient to support maintenance. This study introduces novelty in marketing strategy analysis by integrating the SWOT and Marketing Mix’s 7P approaches to provide in-depth insights into how management and marketing can be improved. These findings are expected to be a reference for other villages in designing more effective marketing strategies and suggesting improvement steps that can increase the attractiveness and sustainability of culture-based tourist destinations. Keywords: Bejijong Village, Tourism Marketing, SWOT Analysis, Marketing Mix 7P.