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Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in Ethiopia Using Multivariate Time Series Analysis

Ali, Sedik
Abstract: Inflation is a fundamental measure of macroeconomic stability that negatively impacts the nation's economy and affects many other macroeconomic variables. Thus, in this study, the major objective was based on modeling and… d forecasting inflation in Ethiopia and its components using a VAR model. The analysis was based on annual data from 1992 to 2021, encompassing 30 years. The results indicated that all five series were non-stationary at the level but stationary after their first differencing at a 5% level of significance. Johansen's cointegration tests were conducted. The results indicated the presence of at least one co-integration relationship between the variables. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was fitted to model short run and long run relationships among inflation and other macro-econometric series such as GDP growth, government expenditure, money supply, and imports, and the result indicated that the coefficient of error correction term is negative (-0.279), which indicated that the fitted VECM model continues to move toward long run equilibrium and converges. Granger causality tests were employed to explore potential causal relationships. Impulse response analysis and variance decomposition were used to determine the short-run interactions among the variables. Finally, using the fitted model, out-of-sample forecasts were produced, yielding forecasted plots and values for the endogenous variables. According to the forecasted inflation rates for the next five years, prices are projected to decrease by approximately 18.0% in 2022, 6.8% in 2023, and then increase by approximately 8.3% in 2024. Subsequently, prices are expected to decrease by approximately 2% in 2025 and 5% in 2026 over the specified time periods.

Economic Signals from Acquisition Premiums: A Re-Analysis of Stock Price Fluctuations to Assess the Impact of Shareholder Wealth in M&A Transactions

Ruma, Zainal
Abstract: This study investigates the role of acquisition premiums in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and their impact on shareholder wealth, focusing on five major Indian deals in pharmaceuticals, retail, banking, steel, and renewable… able energy sectors. Potential synergies often justify acquisition premiums ranging from approximately 15% to 40% above target companies’ market values. However, market responses suggest that such premiums may not consistently result in value creation for acquiring firms' shareholders. Empirical findings reveal mixed outcomes: Sun Pharma’s acquisition of Ranbaxy led to a 9.8% share price increase within five days, while Tata Steel’s high-premium acquisition of Bhushan Steel saw only a 1.7% gain. In contrast, deals like Reliance–Future Retail and Tata Power–Welspun Power showed minimal or negative returns, despite sizable premiums. These patterns indicate that premium size alone is not a reliable predictor of post-deal shareholder wealth creation. The study concludes that M&A success depends more on strategic fit, market timing, and sectoral dynamics than on the premium offered. This analysis contributes to the broader M&A discourse by offering evidence-based insights into how premium valuations can either maximise or dilute shareholder value, aiding investors, corporate strategists, and policy analysts in deal assessment

The Effect of Profitability and Capital Structure on Company Value

Siahaan, Trioksa, Fu Putra, Arveren
Abstract: This study examines the effect of profitability and capital structure on firm value. Profitability, measured by Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE), reflects the company's ability to generate profits from its… ts operations. Capital structure, represented by the Debt to Equity Ratio (DER) and Debt to Asset Ratio (DAR), indicates the proportion of debt and equity used to finance the company. The research sample consists of companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), selected through purposive sampling based on specific criteria. Data analysis was conducted using multiple linear regression models. The results show that profitability and capital structure both have a positive and significant effect on firm value. Profitability contributes to increasing firm value by attracting investors and enhancing market confidence. Meanwhile, an optimal capital structure, particularly the prudent use of debt, can also increase firm value by lowering the cost of capital. The study suggests that management should focus on improving profitability and maintaining an optimal capital structure to maximize firm value

Talent Management Strategy in Retaining The Millennial Generation

Vitaharsa, Leonardo Indra
Abstract: The millennial generation, with its distinct characteristics and preferences, presents both challenges and opportunities for organizations in talent management. This study examines effective strategies to retain millennials… als in the workplace. Key findings reveal that millennials highly value continuous career development, a balance between work and personal life, and a collaborative and inclusive work environment. The adoption of advanced technology and frequent, constructive feedback are also crucial in engaging and retaining millennial employees. Organizations that adapt their talent management strategies to meet these needs are more likely to retain millennial talent and enhance long-term organizational success.

The Influence of Good Corporate Governance on Tax Aggressiveness in Mining Companies in Indonesia

Siahaan, Trioksa, Unjaini , Feri Asandi
Abstract: This study aims to analyze the impact of Good Corporate Governance (GCG) on tax aggressiveness in mining companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). A quantitative approach was used in this research, with secondary… ondary data obtained from financial statements and annual reports of companies over a certain period. The results show that GCG, particularly independent board commissioners and the frequency of board meetings, has a negative and significant impact on tax aggressiveness. However, the influence of the audit committee and the nomination and remuneration committee on tax aggressiveness is not significant. These findings underscore the importance of stronger GCG implementation to reduce risks associated with corporate tax policies. This study provides important implications for companies and regulators in enhancing effective corporate governance to reduce tax aggressiveness in the mining sector.

Savoring The Success: Cultivating Innovation And Creativity For Indonesian Culinary MSMEs Growth

Mulyono, Herry, Rolando, Benediktus
Abstract: The culinary industry in Indonesia has witnessed a surge in the growth of Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises in recent years. These enterprises, known as culinary MSMEs, have played a pivotal role in the country's economic… omic development. To remain competitive in the dynamic market, these MSMEs need to embrace innovative and creative strategies that can drive their growth and sustainability. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the innovation and creativity strategies employed by Indonesian culinary MSMEs and identify the key factors that contribute to their success. The study found that culinary MSMEs in Indonesia can adopt a range of innovative and creative strategies to enhance their competitiveness. These may entail developing novel and distinctive menu offerings, implementing efficient production processes, leveraging digital technologies for marketing and customer engagement, and fostering an organizational culture that promotes innovation. By adopting a customer-centric approach and remaining responsive to evolving market trends, these enterprises can distinguish themselves from competitors and maintain a leading position in the industry. A systematic review of the existing literature also reveals that culinary MSMEs in Indonesia face various challenges, including financial constraints, lack of human resources, and limited access to information and technology. To address these challenges, collaboration with external parties, such as the government, research institutions, and universities, can be a crucial step in enhancing the innovation capabilities of these enterprises.

The Influence of Foreign Direct Investment, Small and Medium Micro Enterprises on Economic Growth and Its Impact on Reducing Unemployment in DKI Jakarta Province

Susanti, Ria Johan, Supandi, Agus, Margiyanto Adi, Tony
Abstract: This study examines the influence of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) on economic growth and its impact on unemployment reduction in the Province of DKI Jakarta. The analysis… is reveals a significant positive correlation between FDI and economic growth, highlighting the role of foreign capital, technology transfer, and managerial expertise in boosting regional productivity. Similarly, MSMEs contribute significantly to the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) and employment creation, supported by government policies facilitating access to finance, training, and business support. The study also finds that economic growth driven by FDI and MSMEs effectively reduces unemployment rates. Recommendations for policymakers include creating a favorable investment climate, strengthening MSME support, ensuring inclusive economic growth, and enhancing public-private collaboration. These measures aim to sustain the positive impact of FDI and MSMEs on economic development and job creation in DKI Jakarta.

The Effect of Investment and Trade on Indonesian Economic Growth (Study on The Impact of The Russian – Ukraine War)

Burhanudin, Fitria, Dona, Budhy Saputro , Firdaus
Abstract: This study aims to analyze the effect of investment and trade on Indonesian economic growth with a focus on the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused significant global uncertainty,… ncertainty, affecting international investment and trade flows. This study employs a quantitative approach using secondary data from various official sources. Through regression analysis, it was found that investment and trade have a significant impact on Indonesia's economic growth. However, the instability caused by the Russian-Ukrainian war affects this relationship, particularly through changes in commodity prices and disruptions in global supply chains. The results of this study provide important insights for policymakers to develop strategies that can mitigate the negative impacts of international conflicts on the national economy.

Differences in Accounting Laboratory Learning Outcomes Based on Educational Background

Saripah
Abstract: This research aims to find out how student learning outcomes differ in the Accounting Laboratory course based on previous educational background. The population in this sample is all 91 students who filled out the Googleform… form provided. The sample size was obtained using the Yamane formula for the two independent variables, namely SMK with 40 students and SMA with 20 students. The type of research in this research is quantitative comparative using the independent sample t-test analysis technique, with the test carried out being a difference test of one group of samples (pairs). The results of this research are that there is no statistically significant difference between the learning outcomes of students with vocational/MAK backgrounds and the learning outcomes of students with high school/MA backgrounds. Keywords: Learning Outcomes, Educational Background 

The Influence of Social Capital, Social Institutions and Local Potential Moderated By Entrepreneurial Spirit on The Success of The Business

Winarno, Agung, Agustina, Yuli, Ichwanto, M. Aris, Churiyah, Madziatul
Abstract: This study intends to investigate the impact of social capital, social institutions, and local potential on the success of KUBE start-ups, as regulated by an entrepreneurial mindset. This study's population consists of VCO… CO business players who belong to joint business organizations. The sample consisted of 200 respondents chosen using the approach of purposive sampling. The data utilized are both original data collected from respondents via questionnaires and secondary data. This study uses Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) with the SmartPLS application to handle data. According to the findings of this study, Social Capital and Social Institutions have little effect on the success of KUBE Start Up. Meanwhile, Local Potential and Entrepreneurial Spirit have a substantial beneficial impact on KUBE Start Up's success. Entrepreneur Spirit does not mitigate the influence of Social Capital, Social Institutions, and Local Potential on KUBE Startup's success.